People listening to the latest FBI crime report, alongside the worries voiced by anti-Second Amendment groups, might be feeling a bit perplexed about where exactly the crime is.
After the Supreme Court overturned New York City’s discretionary procedure for granting concealed carry permits back in June 2022, organizations such as Everytown, Giffords, and Brady United anticipated a decline in public safety. Interestingly, however, the FBI’s findings revealed that the murder rate dropped by 18.1% and violent crime fell by over 9% in 2025.
One often-referenced survey, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, noted a 36% increase in violent crime victimization rates between 2021 and 2023.
In 2020, the FBI altered its data collection method, and by 2021, around 40% of law enforcement agencies didn’t report data to the FBI. Fast forward to the 2023 report, and a significant 72% of agencies participated. According to the FBI’s release of crime statistics, more than 17,000 agencies contributed data for 2025, including nearly 16,800 that reported on hate crimes.
A public opinion survey conducted on July 22 revealed that the percentage of individuals carrying concealed firearms climbed from 24.3% in 2019 to 30.9% in July 2026. So, to put it simply, more people are packing heat these days.
This surge isn’t too unexpected. For one, since the Bruen decision, states like California, New York, and New Jersey can’t just deny a permit on the grounds that someone can’t show “reasonable cause” for needing to carry. Additionally, many states now allow “constitutional carry” without requiring a permit.
Consequently, if these polls hold any accuracy, it seems that potential criminals are more likely to encounter armed citizens when they attempt to commit crimes. And armed citizens? Well, they’re likely to be far less lenient than some officials, leading to the rather remarkable results we’ve seen recently.
In essence, it seems as though criminals might be opting out of behaviors that could lead to a confrontation with an armed individual. So, it’s perhaps not surprising that crime rates are trending downward.
