The Federal Preparatory System suggests that the price has risen in the past three months, the interest rate stabilizes on Wednesday, and that inflation may still have a certain life.
The Central Bank of the Bankers had a rate in the range of 4.25 to 4.5 % in line with the expectations of the market. The decision was unanimous among the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a panel of federal officials in charge of setting interest rates.
CME FED WATCH forecast algorithms based on futures contract prices could be pending 99.5 % on Wednesday in January.
“The federal preparation system has been decided to send a brake with a pump. In the last few months, if inflation is prolonged with a strong number of employment with a strong employment.”
President Trump's aging pastor, Jerome Powell, is a characteristic of the first term of White House and Trump, in order to see President Jerome Powell in order to reduce economic growth. It happens when you revive the tension between.
“I think I know much better than them, and I think it's certainly better than those who are mainly in charge of that decision. “Masu,” Trump told the reporters shortly last week after taking office.
Wednesday holds are believed to be a reduction in the “Hawkish” rate that many analysts have fallen in the stock market in December.
“S & P 500 decreased by 2.95 % on that day. This was the second largest decrease in the past two years, so the scope of Hoxyness was a great surprise for the market,” analyzed.
The Fed has reduced interest rates in September, November and December, and has been investing in the economy after retaining about 5.5 % of the year in response to pandemic inflation, which reached 9 % in 2022. We are looking for promotion.
Inflation returned to 3 %, and even if the Fed was relaxing, it rose from 2.4 % in September.
With the strength of prices and employment conditions, the Fed returned this year's hopes for financial easing, reducing the expected quarterly reductions in December to 4 to 2.
Economicists explain that the current financial outlook is complicated, as the new presidential government and parliament will be appointed, and the economy is still likely to handle several signs of pandemic -induced fiscal stimuli.
“The rate of prospects is complicated,” said UBS Economist Paul Donovan on Wednesday.
The real interest rate in the bond market has increased rapidly in recent weeks, and it is probably concerned about the deficit that can be further expanded by the Republican financial agenda, and claims to reduce interest rates even if the price and employment data are hotter than expected. Masu.
Trump's economic agenda, which may include imported taxes that companies can take over to consumers, can also have inflation effects and further reduce the need for reduction.
“Government policies add the uncertainty reflected in the upset in the bond market. Fed is a US inflation of trade taxes, whether government expenditures can adversely affect growth. Specifically, it is necessary to balance how US consumers will face the inflation effect of the second round of customs duties, “said Donovan.
Some Fed officials have doubled the reduction rate, despite the improvement of banks on economic performance in 2025.
“I believe inflation will continue to progress for 2 % goals than in the middle term. [interest rate] The Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier this month.
US Money supply Before the Fed starts cutting, it is approaching the high point reached in 2022 interest rate and Sales of securities To strengthen the economic situation.
After 3.1 % in the fourth quarter and 3 % in the third quarter, the first quarter of the 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to appear at 2.3 %. Atlanta birth。 The Fed expects a 2.1 % general growth this year.
