Federal regulators are pushing for the removal of Camp Mystic structures from a flood map that estimates flooding once every hundred years. This decision reduces oversight and allows camps to operate and grow in areas at risk of flooding.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) placed a girls’ summer camp in a “special flood hazard area” on its 2011 map for Kerr County, which means they needed flood insurance and faced stricter rules for building and renovations.
This designation suggests that the area could flood during a significant storm event.
Camp Mystic, situated in a low area along the Guadalupe River, experienced devastating flooding on July 4, which tragically claimed the lives of at least 27 campers, counselors, and the long-time owner, Dick Eastland.
The flood was much worse than the typical 100-year flood predicted by FEMA, occurring so suddenly that many were unprepared, especially in counties without warning systems.
Professor Sarah Prall from Syracuse University, who has closely analyzed FEMA’s flood map decisions, expressed concern that camps which care for many youths received exemptions from standard flood regulations.
“It doesn’t make sense to me why they didn’t take stronger measures to keep the buildings out of harm’s way or challenge a map that clearly shows these structures in a 100-year flood zone,” she remarked.
Camp Mystic did not respond to inquiries for comments. In a statement, the camp described the flooding as an “unimaginable tragedy” and mentioned that they were working to restore communication with supporters.
FEMA’s Exemptions
In 2013, after an appeal, FEMA updated the flood map for the county, removing 15 camp buildings from the designated hazardous area. These buildings belong to the almost century-old Camp Mystic Guadalupe, which was heavily impacted by the recent flood.
FEMA subsequently removed additional structures from the hazard area in 2019 and 2020. These buildings were part of nearby Camp Mystic Cypress Lake, which was opened in 2020 as part of an expansion and faced less flood damage.
Campers have reported significant damage to the cabins at Lake Cypress, but noted that the area known as the “flats” at the Guadalupe River camp was flooded.
Experts believe the appeal to adjust Camp Mystic’s FEMA map may have been an effort to eliminate the need for flood insurance, reduce premiums, and ease renovations or constructions without stringent regulations.
Prall stated that it’s common for communities and property owners to use appeals to protect certain properties from more strict regulations.
Flood Risks Remain
Regardless of the FEMA decisions, the flood risks at the camps were evident.
An analysis showed at least 12 structures at Camp Mystic Guadalupe are fully within FEMA’s 100-year flood plain; some are partially in it as well, based on data from First Street, a climate risk modeling company.
According to Jeremy Porter from First Street, FEMA’s flood insurance maps underestimate flood risks because they don’t consider the impact of heavy rainfall on smaller streams. Their model indicates that nearly all of Camp Mystic Guadalupe is at risk during a significant flood event.
On the other hand, the new Cypress Lake site is positioned further away from the flood-prone river but adjacent to Cypress Creek. FEMA’s maps often overlook smaller waterways as risks.
However, First Street’s assessments suggest that, accounting for heavy rain and runoff, most Cypress Lake areas are at risk of flooding 1% of the time in a given year.
FEMA minimized the significance of flood map updates, stating these maps serve as minimum guidelines for flood management rather than precise predictors of flooding.
The Appeal Process
Property owners who challenge FEMA’s designations often enlist engineers to conduct thorough studies to accurately map the 100-year flood plain. This “pretty laborious” process could produce a more accurate map while also facilitating future construction, according to Chris Tube, director of the Texas Flood Plain Management Association.
Prall highlighted that some exempt properties were only a couple of feet from FEMA’s flood plain. Her research shows that FEMA approves about 90% of correction requests for maps, potentially benefiting wealthier and well-connected property owners.
A study Prall co-authored in 2021 reviewed over 20,000 buildings taken off the FEMA flood map, discovering that more white individuals live in higher-value areas, with new buildings often emerging in newly designated areas.
Growth Amid Warnings
FEMA cautioned that portions of Camp Mystic remain on the flood map, and any major renovations or constructions would still be subject to flood management rules.
County officials not only allowed camps to operate but also significantly expanded them.
Dick and Tweety Eastland, the owners of Camp Mystic, referred to the initial camp’s “risqué success” to justify the need for expanding to a second site nearby.
This expansion included new cabins, a dining hall, a chapel, and an archery range, accommodating 557 campers and over 100 staff members. Inspections by the state licensing agency were conducted just two days before the flood.
FEMA posed questions about the camp’s expansion to local officials, who have not provided comments in response to those inquiries.
Steubing, a local government engineer with years of experience, noted that the rain and flooding in Kerr County exceeded any historical precedents, complicating the notion of floodplain management being a failure.
Local officials likely believed that the camps were adhering to existing regulations while expanding, yet nature has clearly redefined the situation, he remarked.
“Even if we had constructed structures two or three feet higher, we could still be at risk,” he concluded.
