“Open immigration is essential to maintaining population size and economic growth,” says a study funded by Bill Gates. lancet This week he claimed to be predicting a dire future in which people in developed countries will rarely have children.
Although the study acknowledges that the future is “difficult to predict,” it nevertheless reminds readers that most of the world’s newborns live in sub-Saharan Africa, and that wealthy countries are growing their economies. It urges people to prepare for a rapid decline in the world’s population as there is “fierce” competition for immigrants to support them. Up. This is the vision for 2100 provided by research from the University of Washington Seattle Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and published in the journal Increasingly Awakening . lancet A journal that advises on contraception in Africa and open borders in Europe to survive the coming decades.
💥Dramatic 💥 Global decline in fertility rates is projected to change global population patterns, with birth rates well below replacement levels by 2100, which could continue to maintain population size for the long term in only six countries #GBD2021 ➭https://t.co/luZXsdmQ1g pic.twitter.com/vakltMeAhT
— Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) (@IHME_UW) March 21, 2024
Although this scenario may sound alarming, paper and thick press release Concomitantly, it describes the global birthrate collapse as a “success story.” Fewer people means fewer carbon emissions, says the paper, which also received funding from the British, Norwegian and New Zealand governments.
Persistence of fertility rates below replacement productivity will pose serious potential challenges for many regions of the world throughout this century, but it also offers opportunities for environmental progress. In addition to strong environmental protection regulations, a future decline in the world’s population could reduce strain on the world’s food system, fragile environment, and other finite resources, as well as reduce carbon emissions.
According to the paper’s co-authors, the reality is that we need solutions that are clearly left-wing, and that we need to restructure society accordingly. Dr. Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, IHME Principal Investigator, said, “The implications are enormous…These future trends in birth rates and birth rates will completely reconfigure the global economy and international balance of power, reshaping societies.” will be needed,” he said.
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“Global awareness of the challenges surrounding migration and global aid networks becomes increasingly important as there is fierce competition for migrants to sustain economic growth and the baby boom in sub-Saharan Africa continues rapidly. “Maybe,” she added.
A press release about the study predicts that by 2100, “half of all children born on earth will be born in sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa.”
The report added: “In high-income countries with low birth rates, policies that support parents and encourage immigration will be essential to maintaining population size and economic growth.” “Populations in these regions will decline unless low birth rates can be offset by ethical and effective immigration.”
The paper predicts a future in which Western countries, far from debating how best to manage immigration, will fight among themselves to get as many immigrants as possible. According to IHME’s model, only six countries on earth will exceed replacement fertility rates by 2100: Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan.
Any hope of countering these problems, for example by encouraging higher birth rates in developed countries, is largely futile, the paper declared. The total fertility rate (TFR), meaning 2.1 children per woman to achieve social independence, says IHME that “even under optimistic assumptions” the impact of prenatal policies is He has publicly stated that he judged it to be low. The newspaper pointed out that abortion is also inevitable, so don’t try to interfere with it.
“There is no silver bullet,” warns Dr. Bhattacharjee.
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— Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) April 8, 2020
He predicted that the future distribution of births would be highly uneven. The global TFR is expected to be around 1.6 by 2100, and around 1.5 in many parts of Europe and the United States, but regions like South Korea and Eastern Europe are experiencing a full-blown demographic winter. , TFR is said to go toward one child per woman. In other words, the naturally occurring population in such areas would be halved with each generation.
“Most countries will remain below replacement levels,” Bhattacharjee said, “and as populations decline in almost all countries, reliance on open immigration will be necessary to maintain economic growth. Sub-Saharan African countries have an important resource that aging societies are losing: young populations.”
IHME warns of a future in which there will be mass immigration, with policies encouraging births in developed countries only able to soften their advantage, but acknowledges that such long-term predictions are difficult. ing.
Indeed, German newspapers die welt quoted The Berlin Institute for Population and Development points out that given the vast number of unpredictable factors, “predictions beyond 25 years are highly uncertain.” As IHME itself points out, one of these factors is technological change. Recognizing the impact of artificial intelligence and robotics is “difficult to predict,” but could still “reduce the economic impact of changing age structures.”
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— Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) October 13, 2019
