Fertility Rates in the U.S. Decline Significantly

It seems like families are getting smaller. Recent data indicates that fertility rates among American women have dropped by nearly 25% over the past two decades, and projections suggest this trend will continue. Notably, about one in four births in the U.S. now occur among foreign-born mothers, based on government statistics.

The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the total fertility rate in the U.S. will decline to 1.58 births per woman by 2025, a significant decrease from the 2.12 rate seen in 2007. That year, just before the onset of the Great Recession, marked the last time fertility rates in the U.S. exceeded the 2.1 threshold necessary for natural population replacement, reflecting a decrease of 25.5% since then.

Moreover, it’s important to note that foreign-born mothers now account for roughly 22 to 25% of all births in the U.S., translating to around 800,000 to 900,000 children each year. Interestingly, immigrants tend to have a higher fertility rate than their U.S.-born counterparts—1.79 births per woman compared to 1.53 births.

That said, both groups remain below the replacement rate, and notably, the fertility rate among foreign-born women is expected to decline faster than that of U.S.-born women in the coming years.

Looking further ahead, the total fertility rate in the U.S. is anticipated to lower even more, falling from 1.58 to 1.53 births per woman between 2026 and 2056—a decrease of about 3.2%. For U.S.-born women, the rate is projected to drop from 1.53 to 1.50 births, a 2% decline. Yet, for foreign-born women, it’s forecasted to decrease from 1.79 to 1.66 births, which is a sharper drop of 7.3%.

This data paints a picture of an aging America, where the number of deaths each year is likely to surpass the number of births as early as 2030. If this trend continues, it could mean a decline in America’s population within just four years, not accounting for immigration.

The report forecasts a slowdown in population growth over the next 30 years, with the annual increase expected to decline from an average of 0.3% in the next decade to just 0.1% per year from 2037 to 2056. This suggests that, even with immigration, the size of America’s population may begin to shrink in the latter part of the 21st century.