May 30, 2024 (Washington, DC)–The HillDecision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a leading election results provider, today released its first projections for the 2024 Presidential, U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives elections. The initial projections predict Republican dominance in all three elections.
According to DDHQ’s first week predictions:
- Former President Donald Trump has a 57% chance of winning the White House. Excluding battleground states where the outcome is currently unknown, Trump is leading President Joe Biden by just nine votes in states where he has a 235-226 lead.
- Republicans have a 77% chance of taking the Senate. Even if they don’t win any swing states, Republicans are currently projected to win enough elections to secure a majority of 51 seats in the U.S. Senate.
- Republicans are currently expected to win, albeit narrowly, 10 of the 17 close races in the U.S. House of Representatives currently being counted by the DDHQ.
The DDHQ forecast is a quantitative model composed of over 200 basic features, including economic indicators, measures of the political environment (both national and local), candidate characteristics, campaign finance reports, etc. Each model run is the result of 14,000,605 simulations.
DDHQ will update its projections weekly until Election Day.Harvard Data Science ReviewDDHQ’s model achieved an accuracy rate of over 90% in all battleground states in the 2020 Presidential election, and all U.S. Senate and House elections in both 2020 and 2022, accurately predicting the winning party for President, Senate, and House of Representatives.The HillDDHQ will make its predictions available to viewers on its 2024 Election Center, leveraging DDHQ’s vast library of polling and historical data, along with interactive tools that allow users to create and share their own 2024 election scenarios and predictions.
“weThe Hill“This is a modern way to engage through data in the pivotal 2024 election and should be available to politically savvy audiences,” said Drew McCoy, president of Decision Desk HQ.
The core of the Election Center will continue to be the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill Polling Average, which provides up-to-date rolling averages of polls conducted in all 2024 congressional and presidential elections. Decision Desk HQ/The HillThe Polling Average provides an easy-to-understand average that represents all available polls in a race, but is easy to interpret and not overly dependent on news events. DDHQ has been averaging polls since the 2018 election cycle using a methodology that prioritizes simplicity, accuracy, and thoroughness.
“We will expand our relationship with DDHQ,The Hill“We look forward to contributing to our political coverage through these unique and powerful data-driven product experiences,” said Joe Ruffolo, senior vice president and general manager.The Hilland NewsNation Digital.
About The Hill
Owned by Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: NXST), The Hill is the nation’s leading digital-first political news brand and a trusted source of nonpartisan political news and information. Inside Washington, it’s known as essential agenda-setting reading for lawmakers and influencers. Outside of Capitol Hill, millions of Americans rely on The Hill to interpret how events in Washington impact their communities and lives.
About Decision Desk HQ
Decision Desk HQ is the leading provider of real-time election results, election call results, and related data, and the only provider covering U.S. elections from the presidential and congressional to the county and city levels. Founded in 2012 with the intuition that technology could be used to speed up the collection of election results and reduce costs, we were the first to call the election wins of President Donald Trump in 2016 and Vice President Joe Biden in 2020. In 2022, we were the first to call congressional wins and losses and also covered 16,000 local elections. We continue to innovate with new technology to drive more efficient election results reporting that prioritizes accuracy, supports local reporting, and strengthens trust in the democratic process.
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arosenwald@thehill.com Decision Desk Headquarters
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