Market Insights for March

Monday marks the start of March trading on Wall Street. Last month, the S&P 500 index dipped about 1%, leaving it just marginally positive for the year. The recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran could influence financial markets moving forward. A busy week of crucial employment data and earnings reports is anticipated.

The Middle East situation remains unpredictable, and things could change before regular trading kicks off. The futures market will begin on Sunday at 6:00 PM Eastern Time, marking the start of oil futures trading as well. Oil prices are likely to be a significant factor, especially since Iran plays a critical role in OPEC. Whenever tensions rise in this region, traders often factor in a “geopolitical risk premium,” which usually leads to higher oil prices. Recently, Brent crude oil has climbed to around $73 per barrel, up from the low $60s at the year’s start, largely due to increased U.S. military presence. Also, any disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—an essential shipping route—could further elevate prices. This past Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to a slight production increase for April.

Looking ahead, CrowdStrike is set to announce its quarterly results after Tuesday’s market close. CEO George Kurtz will likely address why cybersecurity firms should be viewed separately from the broader enterprise software sector, which has faced challenges amidst artificial intelligence fears. CrowdStrike’s stock has decreased by over 20% since the year’s start. During the club’s February meeting, Jim Cramer noted that Palo Alto Networks is less exposed to AI disruptions compared to conventional SaaS providers, yet he hinted that the market’s sentiment might limit the club’s ability to invest in both companies. He expressed a preference for CrowdStrike, which is also expected to reveal more about its recent acquisitions of SGNL and Seraphic. Wall Street forecasts CrowdStrike will post fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.3 billion and earnings per share of $1.10.

On Wednesday night, Broadcom will release its financial results. This is another chance to gauge demand for AI-focused chips, especially after Nvidia’s strong quarterly performance last week. Broadcom may benefit from a significant share of hyperscaler spending this year. Investors will be keen to hear about any new custom chip clients and how executives handle worries surrounding AI’s impact on their infrastructure software business. Despite recent volatility in market sentiment about AI, Broadcom’s positive results might still lead to fluctuations in stock prices, as seen with Nvidia’s recent sell-off. Jim remains hopeful about Broadcom’s potential under CEO Hock Tan, despite predictions of declines for both companies in 2026. Wall Street anticipates Broadcom will post first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $19.14 billion and EPS of $2.02.

Costco will reveal its financials after market closing on Thursday. Retail giants regularly provide sales updates, facilitating accurate revenue expectations. The true insight from Costco will emerge during its earnings call, particularly regarding consumer spending habits amidst inflation. Membership renewal rates remain a crucial metric, as declines in 2025 aligned with dwindling renewals. Despite recent online sign-up pressures, Costco’s stock has gained 16% this year. Stakeholders are awaiting information on tariff refunds following a Supreme Court ruling on a levy by the Trump administration. Wall Street estimates Costco’s second-quarter fiscal 2026 sales will hit $69.22 billion with an EPS of $4.56.

This week will also produce two important employment reports. The ADP’s analysis of business employment trends releases on Wednesday, setting the stage for Friday’s government jobs report. Economists project the ADP will show a 55,000 job increase in the private sector for February, significantly higher than last month’s figure. Predictions for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls suggest a 60,000 rise as well, with hourly wages expected to increase by 0.3% and unemployment staying steady at 4.3%. The upcoming jobs report will indicate whether the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates during its March meeting. Last Friday, a rise in the producer price index had a negative impact on the market, although it didn’t significantly shift interest rate expectations.

Here’s a look at this week’s earnings schedule:

• Monday, March 2: Before the bell – Berkshire Hathaway, Norwegian Cruise Line, Xeris Biopharma, and others; After the bell – Riot Platforms, Credo Technology, MongoDB, and more.
• Tuesday, March 3: Before the bell – Best Buy, Target, AutoZone, and others; After the bell – CrowdStrike, GitLab, and others.
• Wednesday, March 4: Before the bell – Abercrombie & Fitch, Wix.com, and others; After the bell – Broadcom, Okta, and more.
• Thursday, March 5: Before the bell – Kroger, JD.com, and others; After the bell – Costco Wholesale, Marvell Technologies, and more.
• Friday, March 6: Before the Bell – Genesco; 8:30 AM ET – Nonfarm Payrolls, Retail Sales.