Airline travel between Canada and the US has “collapsed” amid Donald Trump's tariff war, with flight bookings between the two countries bookings over 70%.
According to data from an aviation analysis company oagAviation capacity between Canada and the US will decline until October 2025, with the largest reductions occurring between July and August, which is considered the peak travel season. Passenger bookings on the US route to Canada are currently down more than 70% compared to the same period last year.
Comparing available bookings from March 2024 to March 2025, OAG looked at the number of people booked flights beside the border in the six months from April to September. The number of tickets booked has been found to be decreasing in the range of 71% to 76%.
The total capacity available to passengers on flights between the two countries is likely to be a response to a decline in demand. The data shows that over 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines operating between the two countries until the end of October, with a highest cut of 3.5% even occurring during the peak summer months.
However, the sudden decline suggests that current capacity reductions will not begin to cover current indifference in travel to the US.
The dramatic decline in bookings suggests that Canadian travelers are likely refraining from reservations due to the continued uncertainty surrounding the tariff war. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called Trump's latest round of tariffs a “direct attack” on Canadian workers.
A decline in travel between Canada and the US was expected, but a massive 70% drop in bookings could require dramatic changes in airlines, such as Air Canada, an airline with the largest network of border intersections between neighboring countries.
Beyond trade disputes, Canadians are increasingly likely to feel an unsafe intersection with the US amid the rise in cases of foreign visitors detained on ice.
