A new Florida poll suggests abortion may not have as much of an impact on down-ballot votes in November as Democrats hoped.
According to the survey Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida release Florida voters appeared to support it on Tuesday. Amendment 4Residents who oppose a bill to enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution are more likely to support Republican candidates than Democratic candidates.
According to the survey, 69% of Florida voters would vote in favor of Amendment 4, which would prohibit the state from restricting abortions before viability (about 24 weeks) or “when the patient’s health care provider determines it is necessary to protect the patient’s health.” Twenty-three percent said they would vote against it, and 8% didn’t know or refused to answer. A proposed Florida constitutional amendment would need 60% support to become law.
According to the survey, of those who said they support the abortion amendment, 53% are Republicans and 51% said they voted for Trump in 2020. It is notable that there are about 900,000 more registered Republican voters in the state than Democrats.
What’s New: Florida voter registration by party as of June 18, 2024 (changes effective December 31, 2023)
🔴 5,238,195 REP (+96,347)
🔵 4,300,656 DEM (-61,491)
✅ @FloridaGOP By 937,539 points Frademus
🚨 Republican voter turnout increased by 157,838 in 170 daysRepublican average monthly lead increase in 2024: 30,194
— Florida’s Voice (@FLVoiceNews) June 18, 2024
“Again, we have yet to see a campaign really get going on either side.” Michael Binder, PORL Dean and Professor of Political Science Said “Given the highly contentious financial impact statement recently added to the ballot outline, we expect support for this amendment to wane by November,” they said in a statement.
At the same time, polls showed former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points. The Democratic presidential nominee is considered certain. If the presidential election were held today, 49% of Florida voters said they would vote for Trump, while 42% said they would support Harris. Reportedly He was the first Florida candidate to compare Trump to Harris.
Florida voters were also asked who they supported in the upcoming Senate race between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (Republican) and Sen. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (Democrat), with 47 percent supporting Scott and 43 percent supporting Mucarsel-Powell.
“What’s really interesting is that Trump has a couple of points lead over Rick Scott, who is only leading by four points, which is within the margin of error for this poll,” Binder said. “Scott has a history of narrowly winning statewide elections in Florida, and this could be another close race for Scott in a state that has become significantly more Republican over the past six years.”
The survey is at least the third to show Amendment 4 has enough support to pass. Two other recent polls showed the proposed amendments fell short.
If Florida voters pass the measure in November with at least 60 percent support, the abortion amendment would eliminate the state’s six-week limit and essentially create a permanent right to abortion in the state, which could only be overturned by another ballot measure or an uphill court battle.
The poll was conducted among 774 Florida voters from July 24-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
