It's hard to understand money when it comes to natural disasters.
Will FEMA be able to adequately respond? Will residents receive money after their cars, homes, businesses and towns are destroyed by floods? Will Congress approve additional disaster relief in the short term and in the future?
So let's follow the money.
Reporter's Note: With no government shutdown, September feels like Christmas
FEMA's “immediate needs” and Disaster Relief Program (DRF) resources were nearly depleted as Congress approved a stopgap spending bill in late September to prevent a government shutdown. Lawmakers gave FEMA more than $20 billion to reload the DRF, but that amount was reduced to about $1 billion and changed in September.
Congress refilled the DRF only because it was wise to do so. After Hurricane Katrina, lawmakers had to return to Washington in an emergency session in late summer 2005 to renovate the DRF. A $20 billion advance to the DRF this year would be enough to get FEMA through any natural disaster until Congress returns in mid-November.
That's why FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell has indicated that funding is not an issue for FEMA.
For now.
“I have funding and sufficient resources to support the continued response to Hurricane Helen and Hurricane Milton,” Criswell said. “We thought we would start raising the immediate funding in December or January. We have to evaluate every day whether we can wait that long.”
DeAnne Criswell, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, is photographed in front of the U.S. Capitol. (Getty Images)
That's why House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) resisted calls to convene Congress to prepare for the storm. President Biden, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre are pushing for Congress to return ahead of schedule. The House and Senate will be in recess until after the election in mid-November.
Regardless of the severity of both storms, it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which Congress would return to replenish FEMA's coffers. yes. It's good politics for the president, mayors, and other members of Congress from disaster-affected areas to beg Congressional leaders to bring the House and Senate back to Washington. It gives the illusion that you have exhausted all options. And if Mr. Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., don't call people back, opponents will say they are not responding or are not taking the damage more seriously than they should. This may suggest that there is no such thing.
What's more, Congress won't even need to reconvene until November 12th. We have plenty of DRF in stock. Only a catastrophic event such as a thermonuclear war could reduce the DRF to zero by next month. Therefore, it is unlikely to deplete the fund quickly enough to prompt Congressional action.
When lawmakers returned to a dramatic emergency witch-hour session in 2005 to replenish funding for FEMA in the wake of Katrina, FEMA returned with a skeleton staff. Only a few members of Congress were present. Then-Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) approved the bill on the floor after a few brief remarks and “unanimous consent.”
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There are three ways the House and Senate can vote. Roll call vote where each member is recorded as “yes” or “no”. It's a “vote vote.” Those in favor of it shout “yes” and those against it shout “no.” The noisy side (probably) takes precedence. Next is “unanimousity.” There, the bill is brought to the floor, where members simply ask for it to pass (often in the Senate). If all members agree, the bill is passed. But if there is just one opposition, everything stops. The bill is dead.
A small group of people might have succeeded in passing an emergency storm relief bill in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. But American politics now occupies a very different galaxy than it did 19 years ago.
In late March 2020, as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic spread across the globe, Congress attempted to approve a staggering $2.3 trillion relief package. Article I, Section 5 of the Constitution states that a “majority” of the House of Representatives and the Senate “constitutes a quorum for resolution.” However, the House and Senate regularly operate without a proper quorum. It usually doesn't matter unless no one pursues it.
When the coronavirus bill was debated in the House of Commons, leaders insisted on social distancing. The purpose was to approve the bill either unanimously or by a popular vote. A formal roll call requires all 435 House members to be in the chamber at once. Not the best scenario during the dangerous early days of a pandemic.
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) presents the Congressional Gold Medal for the 13 U.S. service members killed in a suicide bombing at Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai International Airport on September 10, 2024 in the U.S. Capitol Rotunda. Greetings at the award ceremony. In Washington DC. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
However, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) “insisted” that the House lacked a quorum and wanted to request a roll call vote. Even former President Trump took fire at Massey, tweeting that the Kentucky Republican is “big” and should be kicked out of the Republican Party.
Former Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Md.) led the vote. He quickly counted the members present. Both the majority and the minority devised ways to bring large numbers of members to the House floor to represent a quorum. Some materialized and spread across the floor. Others appeared on the balcony of the then-closed public viewing gallery.
That was enough for Brown. A quorum was present. He gave the bill passage without a roll call vote.
In today's toxic atmosphere, it's hard to believe that if leaders tried to recall the House and Senate to Washington for an emergency vote, members of both sides wouldn't protest, oh Katrina. Some may scoff at the extra expense, even if it's for disaster relief. They may accuse leaders of trying to force through policies without due diligence. The vote on the 2020 coronavirus package signals potential problems unless all lawmakers are recalled to discuss and vote on emergency spending.
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Then there's the issue of offset.
Republicans, who represent the path of both storms, certainly want the federal government to send disaster aid to affected areas. But deficit hawks will demand offsets before approving new spending.
“We should make sure that the government takes money from other places where it doesn't need to go,” Rep. Byron Donald, R-Florida, said on Fox. “Our government is spending money in areas it shouldn't be spending money on. It's really just a political project.”
But what one member considers a special project is another's essential expenditure. If Congress takes this approach, it will be stabbing someone's bull.
As we often say, it's about the math.
“Please tell me where we can get the votes to do that,” asked a House Republican official familiar with the spending process. “That's not going to happen. That's never going to happen.”
Top view of the destruction left behind by Hurricane Milton. (Reuters/Ricardo Arduengo)
The federal government is already in fiscal year 2025, but there is no agreed total spending amount. This makes it difficult to find the offset.
So, what is the fate of disaster relief?
“This will just be credited to your credit card,” the official said.
Here's what to watch over the next few days:
There will likely be growing calls for Congress to resume its session. President Biden wants Congress back. Article 2, Section 3 of the Constitution states that the president “may, in extraordinary cases, convene both houses of Congress, or either of them.” However, the House and Senate have not taken the appropriate stance to recall the president. The House and Senate are not in “recess.” These are technically “in session” and meet regularly every three days with only one or two members present until the election is over.
House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) plans to invite Criswell to the committee for a hearing in mid-November.
Finally, Congress will struggle to revamp funding for the National Flood Insurance Program and ensure the Small Business Administration has enough funding to assist storm victims. Mayorkas said he knew all along that the flood plan would be “in the red.”
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As for double disaster, there's a lot of money to keep track of over the next few months. Was it too much? Too little? Did they spend their money in the right place? Did you run out of it too quickly? Is it too late? And inevitably, lawmakers will realize something has gone wrong.
The storm may have passed. But storm clouds are gathering on Capitol Hill over the federal government's response.
