Recent surveys typically suggest that congressional Democrats are likely to succeed in the upcoming midterm elections. Yet, CNN’s head data analyst Harry Enten isn’t so sure — particularly when considering the history of poll accuracy.
“We’ve had some pretty favorable Democratic results coming out of places like Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa,” Enten mentioned during a conversation with John Berman on “CNN News Central” on Wednesday.
A Marist Poll released on Wednesday indicated that Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is ahead of former Rep. Mike Rogers by 51% to 44% in Michigan. Meanwhile, a USA Today/Suffolk University poll reveals that Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown is leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted 47% to 44% in Ohio. A Fox News survey conducted from September 24 to 28 shows Democrat Josh Turek with a slight edge of two points over Republican Ashley Hinson in Iowa.
Enten cautioned, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times, I just have to wonder: Could it happen again?”
Enten pointed out that the GOP outperformed polling predictions for Senate races and the presidency in September 2024 by notable margins—9 points in Iowa, 6 points in Ohio, and 5 points in Michigan. During that same month, national polls suggested Kamala Harris would win a presidential election that she lost by a large margin.
“It’s essential to note that the leads Democrats currently have are below how much the GOP exceeded expectations in September 2024,” Enten remarked. “So, maybe we should pause here; we’ve seen this play before. And it wasn’t a comforting scenario for Democrats once the votes were accounted for.”
Berman suggested that Trump’s absence from this year’s ballot might influence the results. However, Enten reminded viewers that the outcome of the 2018 election — Trump’s first midterm election — tells a similar story.
According to Enten, “In September 2018, the GOP outpaced polling by 6 points in Iowa, 6 points in Ohio, and 8 points in Michigan.” He added that Republicans have consistently outperformed September polling by at least 5 points in the last several election cycles, including 2018, 2016, 2020, and 2024.
Enten proposed that if Republicans once again exceed their September polling results in the Midwest as they did previously, even if Democrats win in traditionally tough states like Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas, there could still be a 50/50 split in the Senate, with Vice President JD Vance casting the deciding vote.
“So, if we follow historical trends about the GOP outperforming their September polls, it stands to reason that there’s a solid chance Republicans could maintain control of the United States Senate — even if Democrats turn the tide in places like Texas,” he added.
