On Thursday, Fox News changed South Carolina Senator Darline Graham’s election status from “Lean Republican” to a “Toss Up.”
A recent poll by The New York Times and Siena showed Graham and her Democratic opponent, Annie Andrews, tied at 48%. This has been echoed by other surveys indicating that the candidates are very close in the race. Fox News’ election forecaster updated its prediction, noting that many agree the competition is “uncomfortably close.”
They stated, “We’re updating this forecast to move South Carolina from Lean R to Toss-Up. As this week’s Power Rankings indicated, Republicans have already viewed this as an uncomfortably close race, and that opinion is now widely acknowledged.”
The Senate Leadership Fund, the primary campaign organization for Senate Republicans, invested $5 million in South Carolina in early October as Graham held a slight polling advantage. As of Thursday, she led by an average of 2.4 points, according to RealClearPolling.
The Fund had not previously contributed to Graham’s campaign, signaling that national Republicans may have concerns about her ability to maintain the seat.
Additionally, the Trafalgar Group, a conservative pollster based in Atlanta, reported that Graham was ahead of Andrews by 43.4% to 42.3% in a September survey. An InsiderAdvantage poll from September 10 put her ahead by two points. In contrast, an Impact Research survey from mid-August found them in a dead heat at 41%.
Graham emerged victorious in the Aug. 25 primary runoff against Republican Rep. Ralph Norman, buoyed by an endorsement from President Trump. She was appointed by South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster to replace her late brother, former Senator Lindsey Graham, who passed away on July 11.
Norman has accused Trump of pouring millions into misleading narratives regarding Graham’s qualifications for the Senate, and he announced he wouldn’t campaign alongside her in the lead-up to the election.
During an Aug. 19 primary debate, Graham had difficulty articulating her views on whether Taiwan and the South China Sea represented national security concerns for the U.S.
“I’m just going to be honest here. I’m not that informed on national security,” she admitted while stating her support for the military.
Many in the South Carolina Republican Party were surprised by her decision to run, with state Freedom Conference Chairman Jordan Pace mentioning on Aug. 11 that the party didn’t back her for a complete term.
Graham’s late brother was known for his strong support of military interventions, particularly regarding the Iran war, and he advocated for significant financial assistance for Ukraine against Russia while maintaining robust ties with Israeli leadership. He had even called for the assassination of Russian President Vladimir Putin back in March 2022.
South Carolina has not seen a Democratic senator since 2005 when Fritz Hollings’ term ended. The state legislature is predominantly Republican, with a significant majority in both the House and Senate.
Recently, the Cook Political Report adjusted the status of 19 House races toward Democrats, including four currently held by Republicans. Unprecedented financial support has been directed toward Senate races in traditionally Republican states like Texas and Kansas as Republican candidates face competitive challenges from their Democratic adversaries.
