Here’s a rundown for Thursday, June 12th:
Early Thursday, the mood in the market is a bit tense. Investors are keeping a close watch, particularly ahead of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report and given recent trade updates. There’s also the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May and a US Treasury auction of 10-Year Notes happening.
Interest in the US Dollar hasn’t faded, although it has hit a two-month low against other currencies, hovering around 98.25. Interesting, isn’t it?
Even with trade tensions between the US and China easing, uncertainty remains regarding President Donald Trump’s tariffs on major trade partners, which keeps the market somewhat anxious.
On Wednesday, Trump mentioned he might be willing to push back the July 8 deadline for concluding trade negotiations. I suppose it leaves some room for hope, perhaps?
Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are adding to the unease. CBS News has reported that US officials were informed Israel is preparing to conduct operations in Iran. Jennifer Jacobs noted, “The US anticipates that Iran could retaliate against certain US sites in Iraq.” This makes things feel even more precarious.
On another note, US Middle Eastern envoy Steve Witkov is set to meet with Iranian officials for the sixth round of discussions concerning the nuclear program this Sunday.
Currently, the USD is also under pressure from the soft inflation data released for May. Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers showed a 0.1% rise, leading to an annual inflation rate of 2.4%. Both figures fell short of the expected 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively, which might impact sentiment more broadly.
This disappointing inflation data has solidified expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in September, with the CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicating about a 62% probability, while 52% are considering the releases before data drops.
Today’s US Dollar Price
The table below outlines how the US dollar (USD) has changed against other currencies, currently standing weakest against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.23% | -0.11% | -0.52% | -0.15% | 0.03% | -0.09% | -0.41% | |
| EUR | 0.23% | 0.12% | -0.33% | 0.07% | 0.24% | 0.15% | -0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | -0.12% | -0.45% | -0.05% | 0.11% | 0.02% | -0.30% | |
| JPY | 0.52% | 0.33% | 0.45% | 0.36% | 0.54% | 0.38% | 0.12% | |
| CAD | 0.15% | -0.07% | 0.05% | -0.36% | 0.19% | 0.05% | -0.25% | |
| AUD | -0.03% | -0.24% | -0.11% | -0.54% | -0.19% | -0.10% | -0.41% | |
| NZD | 0.09% | -0.15% | -0.02% | -0.38% | -0.05% | 0.10% | -0.31% | |
| CHF | 0.41% | 0.15% | 0.30% | -0.12% | 0.25% | 0.41% | 0.31% |
The legends highlight changes in the currency pairs, selecting the base currency from the left and the estimated currency from the top. For instance, if you take the US dollar down the left and move to the Japanese yen across the top, the change reflects the USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In other news, EUR/USD has seen a significant gain of 0.50% on Wednesday, reaching a near seven-week high above 1.1500 by Thursday morning in Europe.
GBP/USD has dipped back to 1.3550 after hitting resistance close to 1.3600. The pound has faced more contraction than predicted for the UK’s economic performance in April.
Latest data indicates that UK GDP fell by 0.3% in April, against an anticipated decline of just 0.1%. Additionally, industrial and manufacturing numbers fell short of market expectations.
For USD/JPY, it’s struggling around a loss near 144.00, weighed down by an uptick in demand for safe havens like the Japanese yen. The overall pressure seems to stem from ongoing vulnerabilities surrounding the US dollar.
Interestingly, gold prices have maintained upward momentum for the second consecutive day, reaching a new weekly high of nearly $3,380.
Lastly, WTI has pulled back about 1% from its 10-week peak of 67.82, influenced by news from Iran and Israel.
