Former President Donald Trump lost his leads in Georgia and North Carolina in the recent elections. Fox News Power RankingsThis gives Vice President Kamala Harris the lead in overall forecasts for the first time.
However, with six closely contested states each with a combined 78 electoral votes, the election remains a no-brainer.
Viewers of the debate say Harris won, but we need to wait a few weeks to assess the election results.
Debate viewers announced that Harris had won Tuesday's presidential debate. vote A CNN poll conducted hours after the face-off found that 63% of viewers thought Harris performed better, while 37% said Trump did better.
Fox News Power Rankings Presidential Predictions.
FOX News Power Rankings Issue Tracker: Trump Leads on Two Key Issues, But Harris Gains Power
While Trump drew attention with his unfounded claims that immigrants eat pets and his rebuttal about the size of his rallies, Harris has largely disappeared from the conversation after the debate, having veered off topic and appealed to moderates.
When Trump was able to communicate effectively, he told voters that the country was declining because of the high cost of living and illegal immigration. Continues to be displayed That is a powerful message.
As with any major event, it will take several weeks to assess the impact of this debate on horse racing.
Changes in polls since the last debate.
Previous post-debate poll swings under the Trump administration have been modest: President Biden, for example, lost his candidacy after a terrible performance in June, but the average of quality polls taken in the two weeks after the debate moved by just 2 points.
In 2020, Trump's aggressive interruptions of his opponent and the moderator led political commentators to label him the clear loser of the first debate, but he only lost one point in post-debate polls.
Biden felt his approval rating remained unchanged even after the more balanced second debate.
But in an election decided by just a few thousand votes, a point or two can mean a lot, so don't confuse “modest” with “unimportant.”
National surveys show voters evenly divided
The national election remains close, and Trump's support remains steady despite this unprecedented news cycle.
Former President Donald Trump has seen his approval rating rise steadily amid an unprecedented news cycle.
In the past 12 months Fox News PollBetween 48% and 50% of registered voters said they support Trump.
Criminal indictments, criminal convictions, primaries, a last-minute switch in candidates and an assassination attempt have not been enough to move the former president's approval rating outside a three-point range.
Former President Donald Trump's approval rating has never strayed beyond the three-point range.
In other words, Trump hasn't gained any support over the past year, but he hasn't lost any either — he remains very competitive in this race.
Democrats' approval ratings are improving: Biden was as low as 45% earlier this year, but Harris is closing in on Trump at 49% in the latest Fox News poll, just one point behind him. Nationwide Survey.
The electorate is evenly divided.
In a series of recent opinion polls, The New York Times/Siena, Marist, Pew and The Wall Street Journal It shows a similarly balanced race.
Trump lost advantages in two battleground states
Harris' victories have spread to battleground states, with two races now going in her favor.
Georgia and North Carolina were the narrowest wins in 2020 for President Biden and former President Donald Trump, respectively.
In the last election, Biden's closest victory was in Georgia, where he overturned a victory by 0.2 percentage points, while Trump's closest victory was in North Carolina, where he held on to it by 1.3 percentage points.
With Harris as the nominee, both states are just as competitive today.
FOX News Poll: Harris closes gap with Trump in Sun Belt states
Trump has a 3-point lead in Georgia. Quinnipiac University Poll He has a seven-point lead among registered voters in Siena, with voter turnout figures released last week (49%-46%). Voter Survey Since early August, Harris has led Trump by one percentage point (51% to 44%), but CNN's latest projections show that Voters voting (48% to 47%), compared with a two-point lead in a Fox poll in August (50% to 48%).
“The Democratic Party has consistently performed well in the Atlanta metropolitan area, which includes Fulton and DeKalb counties and accounts for more than 60% of the state's residents. Republicans have an advantage in rural areas, where Trump has consistently led them to vote. Harris began her bus tour in the southeastern city of Savannah.” last month She's trying to chip away at her profits there.
A recent poll in North Carolina.
In neighboring North Carolina, a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters last week gave Harris a 3-point lead over Trump (50% to 47%), and a Siena College survey of registered voters in early August gave her a similar lead (49% to 46%). A Fox poll in August gave Trump a 1-point lead (50% to 49%).
North Carolina is becoming more competitive as its population grows. Over the past decade, North Carolina's population has grown by roughly 1.1 million people, many of them in suburban counties like Mecklenburg and Wake. The pandemic has drawn wealthier urban Americans from surrounding states, another sign that a Republican victory is no longer assured.
Georgia and North Carolina moved from Lean R to Toss Up.
Fox News Power Rankings Battleground.
The projections show Harris continuing to hold an advantage in Michigan, where Biden won by just under 3 percentage points in 2020 and where voters have delivered important victories for Democrats since. Republicans have also had a weaker groundswell campaign in Michigan compared to other must-win states.
Harris is leading the projections, but with 78 votes in the race, the election is still up to anyone to win.
Fox News Power Rankings Presidential Predictions.
Harris leads the projections with 241 electoral votes. With Georgia and North Carolina losing to Trump, the race is tight, giving her 219 electoral votes.
Fox News Power Rankings Presidential Predictions.
That leaves six battleground states with 78 votes to decide the nominee: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Elections tend to be decided simultaneously in states with closely contested votes: Trump won seven of the eight battleground states in 2016 (the states mentioned above, plus Michigan and Nebraska's 2nd District), and Biden won six of those same eight states in 2020.
We have won and lost together on the battlefield.
Ballot measures proposing to guarantee abortion rights in Arizona and Nevada could make those states outliers in very close elections. The measures received support from three-quarters of voters in recent elections. Fox News investigation.
But projections suggest that either candidate would need to win most of the swing states to win the 270 electoral votes.
If Harris has a good night and wins six close contests, she will get 319 electoral votes. If she doesn't get any, she loses. Conversely, if Trump has a good night, he will get 297 electoral votes, and if he doesn't win the same states, he loses.
How the Electoral College will determine a good night for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
While Harris is closer to the finish line than Trump, the race remains highly competitive, with many states in which neither candidate has an advantage.
Less than eight weeks until election night
Election night is fast approaching. With Labor Day behind us and early voting set to begin in just a few days, we are in the final sprint of this once-in-a-lifetime election cycle.
Vice presidential candidates Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. J.D. Vance are scheduled to participate in a debate hosted by CBS News in New York City on October 1.
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Fox News Media has proposed holding a second Harris vs. Trump debate in October, moderated by Martha MacCallum and Bret Baier.
