Fox News Voter Analysis: Trump dominates Iowa caucuses

Donald Trump won a landslide victory in the Iowa Republican caucuses, more than doubling his 24% approval rating in 2016. Caucus participants braved subzero temperatures to give the former president a landslide victory, and his 30-point victory was the largest victory for a contested president in Iowa's modern history.

That's according to Fox News' analysis of Iowa Republican voters.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in second place, beating out former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. The result was a much-needed boost for DeSantis, who visited every county and invested significant time and resources in the Hawkeye State.

Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy was far behind with single-digit approval ratings, then withdrew and endorsed Trump as the results became clear.

Vivek Ramaswamy ends presidential bid after Iowa caucuses

The extent of Trump's dominance was highlighted, as he won by double-digit margins in nearly every demographic group. He had particularly strong support among some of the largest groups of Iowa Republican caucus participants: people without college degrees, very conservative voters, and rural voters.

Trump's strengths

No college degree 62%

Very conservative 58%

Local caucus participants 58%

Trump won 55% of white evangelical Christians, a key bloc of Iowa voters, more than double DeSantis' 24% and Haley's 13%.

More than 6 in 10 caucus attendees identified themselves as supporters of the “Make America Great Again” movement, and most of them (74%) supported Trump. In a move that hints at Trump's next challenge and guarantees that all parties will unite behind Trump if he wins the nomination, non-MAGA voters support Haley by 8 points and DeSantis He took second place.

Non-Maga Supporter

Haley 42%

DeSantis 34%

Trump 13%

DeSantis's main source of power, college-educated, ultra-conservative voters and suburbanites, overlapped with Haley and Trump's supporters. He didn't exactly win over key demographics, but among white evangelicals (+11 points) and those who think abortion should be illegal under all circumstances (+30 points). His advantage over Haley was enough to vault him into second place.

Trump wins big in Iowa; DeSantis beats Haley to second place in first Republican presidential nomination race

DeSantis' strengths

University graduate 29%

Very conservative 28%

Suburban caucus attendees 28%

Abortion is always illegal 35%

Haley's support was strongest among college graduates, suburban voters and political moderates. Despite her anti-pro-life history, Haley leads DeSantis by 22 points among voters who think abortion should be legal in all or most cases. It is worth noting that.

Haley's strengths

University graduate 30%

Moderate 33%

Suburban caucus attendees 28%

Abortion should be legal 33%

The final days of the campaign could have been decisive in the race for second place, as DeSantis held an eight-point lead over Haley among players who have made up their minds in recent days. . Trump held a sizable 73-point lead among people who knew who they supported all along.

decided in the last few days

DeSantis 32%

Trump 26%

Haley 24%

DeSantis had a 7-point lead over Haley among those who had caucused before, but first-time caucuses favored the South Carolina native by 8 points. . Still, Trump won a large majority among first-time attendees (51%) and those who had caucused in the past few years (51%).

WATCH: DeSantis delivers hopeful message after Iowa

Overall, six in 10 caucusgoers would be satisfied with Trump as their party's eventual nominee. Far fewer would be satisfied with DeSantis or Haley.

Satisfied if the candidate wins the nomination

Yes, 61% for Trump.

Yes, 42% for DeSantis.

Yes, 35% for Haley

At the other end of the spectrum, two in 10 (20%) are dissatisfied enough with Trump as a candidate that they don't think they'll pull the lever for him in November. There is. Slightly more people would not vote for DeSantis (26%) or Haley (30%) if they were the candidates.

Despite the big win, Trump has some work to do to unite the party in November. Two-thirds (68%) of Haley voters said they were very dissatisfied and would not support him if he were the final candidate. Fewer DeSantis supporters (25%) refuse to support Trump.

WATCH: Trump's full remarks to Iowa supporters

More than a third of Haley (41%) and Trump (35%) voters would return the favor by declining their support if DeSantis were the final nominee.

If Haley wins the nomination, almost half of Trump supporters (45%) and two in ten DeSantis supporters (19%) will not support her in November.

No matter what kind of candidate they prefer, the top priority voters look for in a candidate is almost universally that they have the mental capacity to do the job of president, and that comes close to having a strong It was about being a leader. Although Ms. Haley sought to question Mr. Trump's stamina, those who prioritized mental capacity supported him by 28 points.

Being able to win in November, caring about people like you and having the best policy ideas were secondary priorities, but very important to at least three-quarters of voters. . Half were looking for a candidate who could work across party lines.

'Very' important Republican candidate

Are you mentally okay? 94%

Strong leader? 90%

Can you win? 82%

Is there a best policy? 75%

Are you curious? 74%

Bipartisan? 52%

Rule Breaker? 16%

Just 16% think it is very important to nominate candidates who are willing to break the rules in pursuit of results.

Despite the legal challenges he faces, most caucusgoers did not think Trump was a lawbreaker. Roughly 2 in 10 (15%) said they were concerned about the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, about allegations of attempting to interfere with vote counting in the 2020 election (19%), or about classified documents discovered. At home in Florida feeling like they did something illegal (21%).

Overall, a quarter of voters who felt Trump was guilty of at least one criminal act supported Haley by a 28-point margin, compared to a quarter of voters who felt Trump had broken no laws. They also won by a 43 point difference.

Trump did something illegal on at least one charge.

Haley 52%

DeSantis 24%

Trump 15%

Most caucus attendees felt the charges were a political attempt to undermine President Trump (80%) rather than a legitimate investigation into wrongdoing (20%).

Perhaps as a result, only 4 in 10 people say they have confidence in the integrity of the U.S. legal system.

More than half had confidence in the integrity of national elections and U.S. democracy in general, and nearly all had confidence in Iowa's election process.

I am confident in the integrity of…

Your state election 90%

America – Election? 57%

US ~ Democracy 51%

America – legal system? 43%

Reflecting distrust in U.S. elections, six in 10 voters felt Biden was not legitimately elected. Trump won these voters by a 54-point margin, while Haley won by 21 points among voters who thought Biden was fairly elected.

Republican caucus participants agree that they want to see changes in the way the country is run, so having a Democrat in the White House is no surprise. The largest proportion (56%) want major changes, while a third (33%) want a complete and utter shake-up in the country's governance. Mr. Trump had the advantage among those who wanted drastic change, but those who wanted complete chaos turned the caucuses into a disaster.

I want to completely change my management method.

Trump 69%

DeSantis 16%

Haley 7%

On the other hand, economic issues were also driving the desire for change. Most voters (9 in 10) said they were financially stable or in recession.

family economic situation

forward 11%

Stay stable 57%

falling behind 32%

As expected, the economy was one of the top issues voters were concerned about, but more caucusgoers cited immigration as the biggest issue facing the country. These two issues dominated the problem landscape, with all other issues in the single digits.

the most important issues facing the country

Immigrants 41%

Economy and employment 33%

Foreign policy 7%

Healthcare 4%

Mr. Trump won 36 points among immigrant voters, and his signature immigration policy of building a wall along the southern border was nearly universally popular among Iowa Republicans.

US-Mexico border wall

Favor 88%

Opposed 12%

Three-quarters of caucus participants feel that immigrants in the United States today do more harm than good to the country. Haley won by a landslide 21 points among people who generally think immigrants help the country. Trump won by another 39 points among the majority of groups who feel immigrants are hurting the country.

Trump won 33 points among economic voters, largely due to a 52-point lead among those who said they were behind on the economy. Voters who said they were financially break-even supported Ms. Haley by 23 points, while a relatively small number of voters who said they were breaking even supported Ms. Haley by a 13-point margin.

Foreign policy was far from the top of voters' list of priorities, with only 7% saying it was the most important issue facing the country, but it was a clear area of ​​contrast between the candidates. .

Four out of 10 voters wanted continued support for Ukraine's war against Russia, giving Haley an 11-point advantage over DeSantis. Trump won support from his opponents by a 43-point margin.

WATCH: Hayley vows to keep fighting after third-place finish

There was more consensus on support for supporting Israel in its war against Hamas (67% in favor, 32% opposed). White evangelicals, who have traditionally been the strongest supporters of Israel in the United States, supported continued support by an additional 54 points.

Overall, a majority of caucus participants felt that the United States should play a less active role in world affairs.

What role should the United States play in solving world problems?

19% more active

Not very active 51%

Approximately right 29%

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School policy (ranked as the most important issue by 3%) was an even lower priority than foreign policy, a blow to DeSantis as he sought to differentiate himself on this issue. Many of the Iowa caucus attendees agreed with the Florida governor in principle. 52% feel their local school focuses too much on racism, and three-quarters feel the same about lessons on sexual orientation (74%) and gender identity (76%) . Unfortunately for Mr. DeSantis, he trailed Mr. Trump by nearly 30 points among those who felt the school focused too much on each issue.

While not a top priority for caucus participants (3% say it's the most important issue), abortion is sure to be a major issue in the general election. Iowa Republicans largely felt that abortion should be illegal in all (20%) or most (48%) cases. Two-thirds supported a six-week abortion ban (65% in favor, 33% opposed), and far more supported a 15-week ban (78% in favor, 20% opposed).

methodology

The Fox News Voter Analysis was a survey of approximately 1,500 Iowa Republican caucus participants conducted between January 9th and 15th.Full methodology details are available here.