With the final outcome still unclear, France’s staunchly anti-immigration Rally National party and its long-taboo far-right opponents rushed on Monday to take advantage of an inconclusive first round of unexpected parliamentary elections.
Sunday’s first round put the Rally National closer than ever to winning power, but voters could still block its path to power in a decisive second round. France now faces two scenarios in what is sure to be a tightly contested final week of elections.
The Rally National and its allies won the first round after a surge in support but are not yet the overall winner and could secure a parliamentary majority in the final round next Sunday – or fall short, blocked at the final hurdle by opponents still keen to prevent France from forming its first far-right government since World War Two.
Rival camps move to thwart France’s right-wing National Party’s electoral momentum
Both scenarios are full of uncertainty for France and its influence in Europe and beyond.
“Imagine France, the country of human rights, the country of enlightenment, suddenly becoming, among other countries, a far-right country. It’s unthinkable,” said Olivier Faure of the Socialist party, which is comfortably holding on to its seat.
The far-right has tapped into voter discontent over inflation, low incomes and a sense that many French families are being left behind by globalization. National Rally leader Marine Le Pen’s party campaigned on promises to boost consumer purchasing power, drastically cut immigration and take a tougher stance on European Union rules. The party’s anti-immigration policies have contributed to many French people of immigrant descent feeling unwelcome in their own country.
Winning more than 289 members of the 577-seat National Assembly would give Le Pen an absolute majority and give her the leverage to pressure President Emmanuel Macron to accept her 28-year-old protégé, Jordan Bardella, as France’s new prime minister.
Such a power-sharing arrangement between Bardella and the centrist president would be messy and conflict-prone, as Macron has said he will not step down until his second term expires in 2027.
Approaching the 289-seat mark could also work in Le Pen’s favour, as she could attract enough new MPs to her side by promising them a government post.
A National Coalition government in France would be another victory for far-right and populist parties in Europe that have steadily risen to power in several countries, including Hungary, where Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will hold the rotating presidency of the European Union for the next six months.
Supporters of French far-right leader Marine Le Pen react after projections based on actual vote counts in certain constituencies were released, in Henin-Beaumont, northern France, Sunday, June 30, 2024. According to poll projections, French voters gave the far-right National Rally a wide lead in the first round of parliamentary elections on Sunday, plunging the country into political uncertainty. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus)
But France’s inconclusive first round vote suggested another possibility: that France’s complicated two-round voting system would leave no single bloc with a clear and viable majority.
That would put France in uncharted territory.
But Le Pen’s opponents still see that scenario as more appealing than a victory for her party, which has a history of racism, xenophobia, anti-Semitism and hostility towards France’s Muslims, as well as historical ties to Russia and a hostile stance towards the EU.
“We are facing a Trumpization of French democracy,” warned Sandrine Rousseau, an environmentalist lawmaker who was also re-elected in the first round. “The second round will be crucial.”
The election’s importance and deadline have added to the tension, casting a shadow over preparations for the Paris Olympics, which open in less than a month.
Candidates who did not win directly in the first round but qualified to go to the second round have until 6pm on Tuesday to decide whether to continue the campaign or withdraw. If they withdraw, opponents of the National Coalition could siphon votes to other candidates who have a better chance of winning against the far-right party next Sunday.
Some candidates announced their own resignations, citing the defeat of the Rally National as their top priority. In other cases, party leaders said they were withdrawing candidates from some districts to set the tone and block Le Pen’s path to power. She took over the party, then called the National Front, from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who has been convicted multiple times for racist and anti-Semitic hate speech.
Official results showed the Rally National and its allies won a third of the national vote on Sunday. The New Popular Front, a coalition of left-wing parties that came together in a fast-paced, three-week campaign to defeat the far right, won 28 percent of the vote, with Macron’s centrist bloc coming in third with 20 percent. But 577 seats are elected in districts, so the national results show the overall results of each camp but not exactly how many seats each group will ultimately win.
Bardella urged voters to win a majority, saying they were being forced to choose between left-wing “firebrands” who pose an “existential threat” to France and his party’s proposal for a “responsible break” with Macron’s government.
Support for the National Alliance and the New Popular Front was so strong that both parties won more than 50 percent of the vote and more than 30 seats in several districts on Sunday, meaning there will be no second round of voting in those districts.
Turnout was about 67 percent, the highest since 1997, ending nearly three decades of deepening voter apathy towards parliamentary elections and, increasingly, French politics in general.
After France’s crushing defeat to the National Rally in European elections, President Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called general elections on June 9. With the fate of the country hanging in the balance, the deeply unpopular and weakened president gambled that the far-right would not win again.
But Macron’s plan has backfired, and he has been criticized even by members of his own camp for opening the door to the National Rally by bringing voters back to the ballot box at a time when many are angry about inflation, the cost of living, immigration and Macron himself.
If his party forms a government, it has pledged to repeal many of Macron’s key domestic and international policies, such as raising the retirement age through pension reforms, and has said it would stop France from deploying long-range missiles in Ukraine in the event of a war with Russia.
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The Rally National’s opponents fear a government like the one it would take would threaten civil liberties. It plans to strengthen police powers and restrict the ability of dual French citizens to work in some jobs in the defense, security and nuclear industries. Macron himself has warned that the far-right could lead France down the path of civil war.
