Wisconsin Gubernatorial Primary Raises Questions about Polling Integrity

Pollster Frank Luntz examined the outcomes of Tuesday night’s gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin and remarked, “We are completely suspending primary voting in the Midwest until we can figure out what’s going on.” It’s understandable why he’d say that.

In the recent Democratic primary for Wisconsin’s governor, congresswoman and avowed socialist Francesca Hong was reportedly ahead by a significant margin, with polls indicating a lead of about 18 to 22 points. However, she ultimately fell just short, losing by a mere half-point to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley.

This situation isn’t entirely unprecedented. Just last week, in Michigan’s Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, the controversial Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed was said to be leading by 10 to 16 points in five recent polls, but in the end, he won by just one point.

The skepticism towards Midwest polling goes back even further. I’ve questioned the accuracy of these polls since the 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary when Senator Bernie Sanders triumphed over Hillary Clinton despite polls showing her ahead by margins ranging from 11 to 37 points. The averages suggested Hillary had a substantial lead of 21.4 points, yet Bernie ended up winning the state by 1.5 points.

Anyway, to get to the crux of it…

No one is likely to stop voting or make changes to the voting process. Generally speaking, the system appears to be more focused on shaping public perception than actually gauging it. It seems designed to influence rather than predict, and manipulate instead of inform. This mirrors what many see as the agenda of the corporate media, with many polls either funded or associated with media outlets that have a left-leaning bias.

Take, for example, the 2024 presidential race. A week before Election Day, President Trump was told he was trailing Kamala Harris in Iowa by three points. The media quickly seized on this, utilizing “A+ pollsters” to suggest Trump’s campaign was faltering. Yet, he ended up winning Iowa by 13 points. It’s noteworthy.

This entire setup feels manipulated. Many involved in polling seemingly do not believe there’s an issue with the process, which results in a lack of motivation to reform it. Polls indicating Francesca Hong had a 20-point lead were likely fabricated to project an image of leftist popularity in mainstream America, especially in the Midwest. The same suspicion surrounds the polling related to Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed in Michigan.

These misleading polls might have discouraged turnout for his Democratic rival, potentially handing El-Sayed the win when his followers observed the polling data and decided to stay home.

Historically, it has taken pollsters years to enact reform. Not making changes is a conscious decision, and one that many seem to have made long ago.