Market Update on Stock Futures and Nvidia’s Surge

Stock futures remained relatively steady on Monday evening, despite Nvidia shares climbing significantly following President Trump’s approval for the sale of H200 chips to China, which includes a notable cut for the U.S. government.

Futures associated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average were just below even, whereas S&P futures saw a slight uptick of under 0.1%. Interestingly, Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.1% or more.

In post-market trading, Nvidia experienced over a 2% increase. This came on the heels of the semiconductor giant’s announcement that it might start shipping H200 chips to select customers like China, with the stipulation that 25% of the revenues would benefit the U.S. government. Trump mentioned that Chinese President Xi Jinping had a positive response to the deal. This follows a meeting between Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang and Trump last week, marking a significant win for the tech company after extensive trade discussions.

During Monday’s trading, tech stocks stood out as the clear winners. The tech sector was the only part of the S&P 500 to close positively, buoyed by gains in many semiconductor companies. Broadcom shares surged nearly 3%, while both Nvidia and Microsoft saw about 2% increases each. There’s also talk about Microsoft potentially designing a custom chip in collaboration with Broadcom.

However, all major U.S. stock indexes had previously posted declines, as the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries continued its ascent amid ongoing inflation worries.

This week, traders are looking forward to a critical decision from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, expected on Wednesday—the final one for the year. There’s speculation that the Fed might reduce its key overnight lending rate by another quarter point, similar to what occurred in September and October. Current forecasts suggest an 89% chance of this cut, a rise from under 67% just a month prior.

As Brett Kenwell, an investment analyst at eToro, noted, “A rate cut seems almost guaranteed at this stage, but how the Fed presents its economic outlook and comments from Chairman Powell will significantly influence market reactions. This could set the market tone not just for the week, but for the month ahead.” There’s a hope among risk-on investors that the Fed’s actions will boost a year-end rally instead of dampening the recent gains.

Last week, the stock market received a boost from a lower-than-expected core personal consumption expenditure price index for September. The average of the major U.S. stocks has seen gains for two consecutive weeks.

Kenwell pointed out that the Fed is juggling numerous factors in its decision-making, such as stubbornly high inflation, uncertain economic conditions, delayed data due to a significant U.S. government shutdown, and anticipation of a new Fed chairman.

He raised an important question: “If these pressures continue into 2026, can the Fed adopt a more supportive stance, or will its dual mandate restrain any dovish tendencies?”

On a different note, this week is also significant for investors eager to review earnings reports from major artificial intelligence players like Oracle and Broadcom, as well as from retailers such as Costco and Lululemon.