U.S. drivers may pay more for gasoline in 2027 than earlier forecasts suggested, though prices are still expected to ease from the levels seen through much of 2026.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said fuel supplies are likely to remain tight through the end of 2027. In its November outlook, the agency projected that regular gasoline would average $3.73 a gallon next year, down from an expected $3.89 this year.
That 2027 estimate is 5% higher than the EIA’s forecast last month, which put the national average at $3.56 a gallon.
Gasoline prices dip below $4 a gallon
“Although we expect the U.S. average retail price of gasoline and diesel to decline in 2027, we raised our forecast for those prices from last month’s outlook,” the agency said.
The EIA now expects diesel to average $5.03 a gallon in 2027, up from its previous estimate of $4.49. Even so, that would be below the projected 2026 average of $5.25.
The agency said it expects global oil markets to face ongoing supply constraints through the end of 2027. Those conditions could widen refinery margins and encourage U.S. refineries to operate at elevated levels.
Oil market pressures affect the outlook
Crude oil prices rose for a third straight month in October, the EIA said, citing falling inventories, attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, limited shipping capacity and rising transportation costs.
The agency expects most Middle Eastern oil production outside Iran to return to its pre-conflict average by the middle of next year. Brent crude is forecast to stay near $100 a barrel for the rest of 2026, then gradually decline to an average of $77 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027.
The national average for gasoline fell below $4 a gallon on Tuesday for the first time since July, according to AAA, reaching $3.97. Prices slipped again on Wednesday to $3.94 a gallon—about 18 cents lower than a week earlier and 41 cents below the level a month ago.
