A basic overview
Gold has achieved a new all-time high today. This bullish trend has been gaining momentum since Friday. There isn’t a strong negative factor influencing the market, allowing it to continue moving forward on inertia.
However, the Federal Reserve’s projected interest rate paths are not as aggressive as what the market reflects. This disconnect could mean that robust US economic data might prompt a more hawkish stance on interest rates, especially given the gap between market expectations and Fed forecasts.
A pullback similar to last year’s could occur, but overall, gold seems set to maintain its upward trajectory, possibly due to a decrease in actual yields. Still, short-term adjustments in interest rate forecasts may also lead to corrections.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Time Frame
The daily charts indicate that gold has reached its highest level ever. From a risk management standpoint, buyers may face heightened risks near key trend lines, while sellers are likely targeting further declines to the 3,120 levels. A significant move in that direction could follow if strong US data leads to revised hawkish expectations for interest rates.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4-hour time frame
The four-hour charts show prices bouncing off a minor uptrend line at 3,630 levels. Buyers are expected to support this trend line and push towards new highs, while sellers will be looking for solid breaks that could pull prices down to the primary trend line.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour time frame
On the 1-hour chart, there are top trendlines at around 3,723 levels that might serve as resistance. Sellers could target these levels, defining risk above the trend line while positioning for pullbacks to minor uptrend lines. Conversely, buyers are keen for prices to rise and set new highs, but that hasn’t materialized today, as prices are currently hovering near the peak of today’s average daily range.
Future Catalysts
Tomorrow will feature US Flash PMIs and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Thursday will bring the latest jobless claims data, and the week will conclude on Friday with the US PCE report.
