When the modern NHL playoff format was introduced, it was designed from the beginning to create more intense competition.
The first round series between the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars is just the latest example of the league’s vision taking shape.
Oddsmakers were all over the place and all over the place throughout the first four games, each played in two installments.
The Stars are favored as road teams with a 4-0 record heading into Game 5 at home in Dallas on Wednesday night.
Golden Knights vs. Stars odds
| team | money line | pack line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| The knights | +135 | +1.5 (-190) | o5,5 (-125) |
| Performer | -160 | -1.5 (+155) | u5.5 (+105) |
Golden Knights vs. Stars predictions
The Knights have outscored the Stars in shots on goal through three games in this series, but have lagged behind defensively.
They allow twice as many dangerous scoring opportunities as the Stars have at 5-on-5, and they turn the puck over with worrying frequency.
When it comes to 5-on-5, Dallas leads all playoff teams in expected goal percentage and is among the top five teams in puck possession.
In Game 1, the ball dropped on that penalty kill, and the Knights allowed scores on both power-play opportunities.
Jake Oettinger’s soft unmarked winning goal proved to be the difference in the second leg. This was despite the fact that Dallas kept up the pressure on the slant and could barely see a goal in sight.
Ettinger then made his money in Las Vegas. He returned to Texas after posting a 1.77 goals-against average through Games 3 and 4, rejecting over 94 percent of the shots he faced while the Stars played responsibly in front of him.
Bruce Cassidy confirmed Wednesday that he will give Addin Hill a spot in the crease. Hill will make his first start in the playoffs after anchoring the 2023 Stanley Cup team.
When he returned from injury at the end of the season, he wasn’t in the same form.
In all three games he started in April, he had three or more goals and a save percentage below .900. This led to Logan Thompson receiving his first baton.
It’s more of a change of rhythm than a necessity, but Hill has a job that suits him and is spurred into action.
This does not take away the honor of the Knights. The Knights may be the most unpleasant wild-card team a No. 1 seed has had to face in recent memory.
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The resiliency, led by Las Vegas experience and Jack Eichel’s clutch playoff production, continues to keep things interesting.
But without special teams and some key bounces, this won’t be an even series. Results don’t always reflect the essence, but that’s hockey.
Golden Knights vs. Stars Picks
The momentum is on the Stars, so they’re playing with them on the puck line for a chance to eliminate the Knights back in Vegas.
