No, Mr. Gonzaga is not part of the public conversation.
Just one win at Kentucky is not enough. Not a disastrous resume. It is not based on the work itself.
After the Zags’ upset of the 17th-ranked team in the nation on Saturday, several bracket theorists on social media wondered if the West Coast Conference powerhouse had clinched a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The idea surfaced. Gonzaga only won one game in Quad 1, and he had a 3-6 record in Quads 1 and 2, making him worthy of consideration despite being supermodel-thin. The win against the misguided Wildcats was a worrying one for a bubble team.
You shouldn’t. At least not where Gonzaga is right now.
If the Bulldogs can add two more Quad 1 wins over St. Mary’s and San Francisco, they’ll likely have a case. NET Ranking #24 and KenPom Ranking #19, which I think is a very good metric, but the most consistent thing I’ve heard from committees over the years is that the most important part of your resume is It’s a victory against a bigger team. Gonzaga University’s record against such teams is 1 win, 4 losses. Three of the losses were by double digits. And this one win went to the Kentucky team. That team has a buoyant resume, a 2-5 record in Quad 1 play, and is on track to finish as a double-digit seed or better if its current downward spiral continues. Another important part of a typical resume is your Quad 1 and 2 records. Anything below .500 is usually difficult to overcome. Gonzaga is three games down. The struggles of high-profile non-conference opponents like Syracuse, USC and UCLA hurt the Zags. The best thing about their resumes is that they don’t have any bad losses. Their worst setback was a road loss in the second quad, Santa Clara.
Let’s compare Gonzaga to some bubble teams. St. John’s, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Florida, Washington State, Mississippi State, Providence, Texas A&M and Xavier all have more wins and better records in Quad 1. Of course, they have more opportunities from the power conferences. Some of the aforementioned teams still have work to do to actually have a chance of being selected, which would indicate where Mark Few’s side currently stand.
I recently wrote that Gonzaga needs to win the West Coast Conference Tournament to qualify for its 25th NCAA Tournament. A win against Kentucky won’t change that. I think the path to at-large is to win or lose against St. Mary’s in the WCC title game, but even that may not be enough.
east of burden
This week’s game is Saturday afternoon, when No. 1 Connecticut plays No. 7 Marquette in the Big East, and at least for now, the two Final Four contenders aren’t the most appealing spots in the conference. As the league’s television contract with Fox nears its end, with the contract set to expire in June 2025 and negotiations begin for a new deal, the Big East will have a minimum of four teams or a maximum of seven teams in the NCAA Tournament. It is possible that they are considering it.
It’s no exaggeration to say that this month will be a monster month. The difference between 3rd and 9th place is 2 games. All of these teams are in it to dance, but No. 19 Creighton and Butler are the only two of those programs that feel safe. That leaves St. John’s, Seton Hall, Xavier, Providence, and Villanova. If the Big East could send six or seven teams to March Madness, that would certainly help in the negotiations. That possibility still remains, but it means two or three of his aforementioned five will emerge in the coming weeks. No one from that group has come forward recently. The league wants to change that.
game of the week
No. 7 Market in No. 1, Connecticut, Saturday, 3 p.m.
Marquet has won seven straight games. UConn owns his 12-game winning streak, which leads the nation. On Saturday afternoon, Hartford, the Big East’s two premier teams and two Final Four contenders expected to win the national championship, will meet for the first time this season. Marquette needs to sweep the season series to repeat as league champions, making this matchup even more important. If Connecticut wins, the Huskies will be in the driver’s seat for the Big East regular season championship. The battle between dynamic point guards Tyler Kolek and Tristen Newton will be the centerpiece of this monster showdown.
seed:
1. Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona
2. Tennessee, Kansas, Marquette, North Carolina
3. Baylor, Alabama, Iowa State, Auburn
4. South Carolina, Illinois, Dayton, Creighton
stock watch
Above – Jeremiah Williams
3 games, 3 wins, 3 great performances. The Temple and Iowa State transfers injected energy and life into the Scarlet Knights, who demolished No. 11 Wisconsin on Saturday. I still don’t believe in Rutgers as an at-large candidate. Although he’s ranked No. 86 in the NET and 2-8 in the Quad, Williams averaged 14.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists and changed the dynamics of this team. Because he became eligible after violating the NCAA’s gambling policy. A spot in the NIT is realistic, and a star-studded freshman class will make up for lost seasons before the start of the season.
Above – RJ Davis
He is averaging 21.5 points per game. He is shooting over 41 percent from 3-point range. He commits a career-low 1.5 turnovers in about 35 minutes per game. He has scored 20 or more points 16 times. There is no guard in the country who plays better than former Archbishop Stepinac’s star player. From the improved Tar Heels defense to the impact of Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram and the progress of five-star rookie point guard Elliott Cado, among the reasons why North Carolina bounced back from last year’s disappointment of missing the NCAA Tournament. Davis is mentioned. It’s at the top of the list.
Down – Kentucky
In Quad 1 games, they have a record of 2 wins and 5 losses. Record of 3 wins and 6 losses in Quad 1 and 2 games. Expected Quad 3 losses and only 3 wins against tournament teams. This is a resume closer to the bubble than a 4-seed. After Saturday’s loss to Gonzaga, Kentucky became the first team in program history to lose three games in a row at Rupp Arena. Coach John Calipari hasn’t been able to force Kentucky out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament forever since 2019 in Lexington, Ky., and this defensively challenged team is trending in the wrong direction as March approaches. There is a tendency. Despite his talent for recruiting, it’s fair to wonder if Calipari has lost his coaching fastball — never being elite to begin with.
Down – St. John’s
Rick Pitino’s first season went from success to major disappointment. Entering the trip to Creighton on January 13th, the Johnnies were tied for first place in the Big East, with 4 wins and 1 loss, their best start in the league in 23 years. The tournament felt like a safe bet. Now, having lost six of eight games, St. John’s needs a strong finish to take on the dance. The team has never been able to get a shutout, with a record of 3 wins and 7 losses in games in which the deficit was six points or less in the final five minutes. They blew halftime leads against Marquette (twice), Connecticut (twice) and No. 18 Dayton. If we can win even one of those games, let alone two, the face of the season will change dramatically.
