The failures of the Biden administration are many, but none are more evident than the disaster that is its national security policy. The trajectory of bad judgment, failed negotiations, and class incompetence is unique in American history. Watching Team Biden direct national security policy is like watching a herd of baboons pilot an airplane. I know I'm going to hit a mountain, but I don't know when.
It all starts with deterrence, which a new breed of Democratic foreign policy fanatics consider a relic.
Deterrence is about instilling fear in an opponent and preventing or at least significantly reducing the risk of attack. It is part of game theory, which studies how multiple actors behave in order to maximize profits in a given scenario. The goal is to “win” or reach a stable equilibrium, depending on the situation, a geopolitical poker game.
Understanding and applying game theory is fundamental to geopolitics, especially in times of potential and actual conflict. It is not a relic, and the multi-year Biden policy debacle in Ukraine proves that.
Deterrence has gotten a bad rap from the Cold War era principle of “mutually assured destruction.” American and Soviet policy was to launch a full-scale nuclear response in the face of nuclear attack. On the surface, it's madness. Nuclearly attacking the Earth and reducing it to ashes based on theory is nonsense. But it worked.
After World War II, peace between major powers in Europe was the longest in history, lasting more than 70 years, far exceeding the previous record of 43 years (1871-1914). It ended with the Obama administration rejecting deterrence in favor of a “proportionate response” and economic sanctions.
Why did Russian President Vladimir Putin invade Ukraine?For the same reason wars always start: Putin thought he could avoid them. And he was partially right. Team Biden's initial reaction was: give up and run away. Only the firm stance of Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy forced the West's hand.
of timid aid process That's because Ukraine has barely regained deterrence. Team Biden has Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro holding his nose. steal another electionHamas and Israel Ignore Team Biden's pleasAnd Iran has armed Houthi proxies, attack shipping in the Red Sea.
The deterrence failure was bad enough, but it was even worse because their strategy during the war wasn't really a strategy at all. Team Biden simply hobbled forward in an ad hoc manner. scared of President Putin The “red line” I imagined, They spent months debating what weapons to supply and its limits. approve them finally And unexpectedly, There seems to be no consideration at all of what was actually going on in the war at the time or what the current needs were.
Their incompetence prolonged the Ukraine war, made it more dangerous, and jeopardized domestic political support. It's a barely comprehensible trio of postmodernist neurotic bungling. To make matters worse, the dynamics developed because of Team Biden's incompetence. Their weakness encouraged Putin's rants and bluffs. President Putin realized that the nuclear threat had caused so much public unrest in the West that he became quite blunt about it.
However, considering the poor condition of the Russian army, Difficulty maintaining nuclear weaponsPutin could hardly have assumed that a particular device would work. The fizzle would be a humiliating disaster. This means that tests are conducted before an actual nuclear threat occurs, and preparations take time. These preparations will be evident well in advance of a nuclear attack. Moreover, crossing the nuclear threshold would be a high stakes that would jeopardize China's (and other countries') support.
Eventually, even weak-willed bedwetters like Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan saw through Putin's obvious bluff. This in turn created a dangerous dynamic. The West will discuss additional military aid, Putin will issue nuclear threats, the West will ignore Putin, and Russia will be humiliated. But for President Putin, public humiliation is truly intolerable and requires a response.
result? Instead of creating a balance of fear or rough equilibrium (an important goal of proper game-theoretic action), Team Biden ignorantly created a cycle of escalation.
What Biden should have done early in the war was to announce a simple principle: no matter what Russia does to Ukraine. Ukraine can be defeated by Russia with American weapons. If Russia fires a missile 160 miles into Ukrainian territory, Ukrainians can do the same into Russian territory.
Although this would still cede control to Putin in terms of the level of violence, he would be held squarely responsible for any destruction caused to Russian soil. The endless public debate in the West over the possibility of Putin's “red line” would have disappeared. By choosing how to wage war, President Putin will reveal the red lines he must not cross.
Without this balance of fear, Russians would act with absolute impunity. They indiscriminately bombed Ukraine, massacred civilians, destroyed energy infrastructure, and possibly used poisonous gas. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are even prevented from attacking Russian military formations on Russian territory preparing to advance on Ukrainian positions. That's pure stupidity.
As a result, a political “loop of destruction” was formed in the West. Russia's destruction of critical parts of Ukraine's infrastructure and economy requires additional funds to keep Ukraine afloat, increases costs for Western countries, undermines domestic political support for aiding Ukraine, and undermines Russia's Encouraging further violence.
The idiots in the Biden administration never understood this.
Despite the left's hallowed cries about how President-elect Donald Trump will sell out Ukraine, at least Trump and his national security team understand deterrence. They are not afraid of their shadow. Trump is better at playing chicken than any American politician. Saemo Ukrainians are aware How bad is the despicable Biden national security team?
Trump hates losing. his next team have little interest As I began my term, I wasn't ceding anything to anyone. There is definitely uncertainty about what President Trump will do. But given the ineffectiveness of the current administration, which is dominated by the world's worst poker players, both Ukraine and the United States would be better off with a stubborn Team Trump than a weak and directionless Team Biden.
Keith Norton is the co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.
