Tuesday’s elections in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina featured several races that were closer than expected, posing a test of Donald Trump’s strength as he heads into a rematch with President Biden.
But the biggest shock of the night was a low-profile special election in Ohio: In other states, Trump-backed candidates beat their opponents in primaries, but at least one of them did so by a much narrower margin than expected.
Here are five takeaways from Tuesday’s primary results.
Republicans avoid disaster in Ohio
It was supposed to be a drama-free race.
However, the special election in Ohio’s deep red 6th Congressional District turned out to be a much tighter affair, with the Democratic candidate faring much better than expected.
The election came after former Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Illinois) decided to resign in January, and the winner will serve out the remainder of his term.
Johnson has represented the 6th Congressional District since 2011 and was up for reelection in 2022 by a 35-point margin. Under the current layout of the district, Trump would have won by 29 points.
But with more than 95% of the votes counted in the latest tally, Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli beat Democratic candidate Michael Krypchak by just nine points, giving the Democratic candidate about 20% more votes than expected in the district.
“The Democratic presidential nominee is a strong candidate for the White House,” said Dave Wasserman, senior editor and election analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Belong The reason for this surprising result is that voter turnout in the district was “terrible,” with highly motivated voters favoring the Democrats.
While it wasn’t a major upset as expected, Democrats have reason to be encouraged by the results. This is the latest special election in which Democrats have performed well. The last time was in February, when Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) won handily in a special election to fill the remainder of former Rep. George Santos (D-NY)’s term.
Ohio is likely to remain a safe state for Trump in the November election, but the high turnout among Democrats is a positive sign as Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) faces a tough re-election campaign.
McCarthy’s Revenge tour gets off to a shaky start
For former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), the bitter primary contest against Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Calif.) was his first opportunity to get revenge on the Republicans who voted to remove him from office.
The two-term House member has been embroiled in controversy on several occasions, including voting with conservative House members to remove McCarthy as speaker and shifting from criticizing President Trump to supporting his reelection. He has also faced accusations of frequently changing his stance on key issues and negative press about high turnover among House members.
That has spurred two challengers in the primary: former South Carolina state official Katherine Templeton and nonprofit leader Bill Young. Templeton, seen as the main challenger, ran to the right of Mace, accusing the incumbent of being a “con man” who isn’t actually loyal to Trump.
Another challenge for Mace in the three-way primary was that he needed to secure not just first place but a majority to avoid a runoff election later this month. But with the backing of President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), Mace easily secured a majority, beating runner-up Templeton by nearly 30 points as of the latest vote count.
McCarthy-affiliated groups I was asked Support Templeton in ousting Mace as part of a broader effort to remove the handful of Republicans responsible for Mace’s downfall.
Her easy victory on Tuesday was another blemish on California Republicans.
Republican Party divisions exposed
While Mace’s primary campaign garnered more national attention before the election, his fellow South Carolina Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.) ended up in a much closer race, highlighting the divisions that are rocking the Republican Party.
Timmons, who has represented the state’s 4th Congressional District since 2019, has a staunchly conservative record in the House and has supported Trump, but faced a challenge from the right in the primary from state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Ill.), who founded and served as chairman of the far-right Freedom Caucus in the state House of Representatives.
Timmons had the backing of Trump, Johnson, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster (R-South Carolina), but Morgan had the backing of some of the House’s most conservative members, including House Civil Rights Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R-Va.) and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Lausanne, S.C.).
Morgan criticized Timmons as a moderate, saying his views on cutting government spending and opposing aid to Ukraine were not conservative, and noted that Timmons’ support for McCarthy was what prompted him to run.
Timmons countered by highlighting his conservative credentials and ties to Trump.
Incumbent Trump won the nomination in a Republican-leaning district, almost guaranteeing his reelection, but by just five points as of the latest vote count — a much narrower margin than his 2022 victory in a four-way primary and revealing the limits of his support.
Important Senate Elections to Be Decided
Another showdown that could determine which party will control the Senate in the next Congress has been decided as Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-Nevada) and Republican Sam Brown have officially become their party’s nominees.
Brown, a retired Army captain, was the choice of Senate Republicans’ campaign organizers to run against Rosen, who faced little opposition in his re-nomination for a second term.
Trump, who had been in the running for much of the Republican nomination race, gave a last-minute endorsement of Brown on Sunday.
Brown defeated Jeff Gunter, a former U.S. ambassador to Iceland, and Jim Merchant, a former state legislator, who sought to tout their ties to Trump, the Republican presidential frontrunner, and accused Brown of not being a true Trump supporter.
Gunter has dubbed Brown “Fraudster Brown” and claimed that Senate Republicans secured Trump’s support for Brown rather than his own candidacy, a claim denied by both the Senate Republican campaign and Trump senior adviser Chris LaCivita.
Brown was already seen as the front-runner before Trump endorsed her, and many early votes had already been cast before Trump endorsed her, which Trump will be able to count as one of his endorsed candidates winning the primary.
And importantly, Trump and Brown may need the relationship as Republicans simultaneously try to compete in Nevada, a key battleground state in November.
Trump wins with endorsements
President Trump weighed in on all the key races on Tuesday ahead of the election, maintaining his near-perfect record in winning congressional support this year.
In addition to Brown, Mace and Timmons, all of Trump’s top candidates in key districts won their primaries, and by larger margins than Timmons.
In the Republican primary for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R), who is supported by President Trump, easily defeated his colleague, Republican Rep. Mike Soboleski, who was up against Democratic Rep. Jared Golden.
And in North Dakota, Rep. Kelly Armstrong (Republican) overwhelmingly defeated Lt. Governor Tammy Miller (Republican) in the primary to choose the successor to retiring Governor Doug Burgum (Republican). Armstrong was the leading candidate, backed by President Trump, North Dakota Senators Kevin Cramer (Republican) and John Hoeven (Republican), and the state party, but incumbent Governor Burgum (Republican) supported Miller.
Julie Fedorchak, a North Dakota Public Utilities Commissioner whom Trump picked to replace Armstrong as the state’s sole representative in the House of Representatives, also won handily in a tightly contested race.
Both Armstrong and Fedorchuk are likely to be the favorites to win their respective elections in the ruby-red state.
