With less than a month until the election, Republicans are desperately trying to close the funding gap with Democrats in battleground states.
Democrats across the country have consistently outmaneuvered their Republican opponents for months as they seek to keep former President Trump out of the White House and maintain their slim Senate majority despite a difficult climate.
The disparity prompted Republicans to take several steps in the final weeks to try to make up for it, including a shift in advertising strategy and outside spending in some states to close the gap. But the GOP's funding problems raise deep questions about how fundraising struggles will affect the party's chances in November.
“One of the important things is, even if you have a lot of money, do you know how to spend it,” said David Lublin, professor and chair of American University's School of Government.
Democrats enter 2024 with at least six Senate seats they need to defend, including two in red-leaning states and the rest in swing states that could swing either way in the presidential election. Democrats, on the other hand, were focused on two targets, Florida and Texas, which seemed far-fetched.
Republicans continue to have an advantage in the Senate, with Decision Desk headquarters giving Republicans a more than 70% chance of winning the Senate. But Democratic Senate candidates are giving their opponents an advantage in their own interests, often polling ahead of them.
Each campaign has until early next week to report fundraising totals for the third quarter of 2024, so the overall picture for the final quarter before the election remains uncertain.
Federal Election Commission filings show that Senate Democrats and Republicans spent about the same amount in campaign spending through August, but Democratic candidates will outspend Republican candidates by millions of dollars from 2023 through the midpoint of this year. Raised funds.
This is despite the fact that Republicans have nominated several very wealthy candidates who are able to self-finance some of their campaigns but don't contribute enough to make up the difference. It is.
politiko reported last week The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the campaign arm of the Senate Republican Party, announces a shift in its advertising strategy, discontinuing independent spend advertising in favor of lower-cost hybrid advertising co-purchased with campaigns. did.
Republican strategist Vinny Minchillo argued the strategy was a smart way to raise even more money.
“What's really interesting about hybrid is that you can probably double your money, so you can buy at a hybrid-to-candidate rate instead of a higher third-party rate,” he said. also admitted. It can be difficult for ad makers to produce.
Hybrid ads require you to spend the same amount of time with a specific candidate on a specific issue or party, and limit the amount of time you can discuss specific races.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) took advantage of its fundraising advantage following the NRSC's decision.
“Senate Democrats are well-positioned to protect their majority because they have a good candidate, a strong campaign and a better message,” DSCC spokesperson Tommy Garcia said in a statement. “While Republicans are cutting back on advertising, Senate Democrats are expanding their reach and going on the offensive.”
The Hill has reached out to the NRSC for comment.
The Republican Party has also been buoyed by outside spending from super PACs, which spend millions of dollars on campaigns, with large amounts of money still flowing into the Republican Party. A super PAC backed by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said last week: inject $6 million On to the Senate race.
The Ohio Senate race between Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican Bernie Moreno is shaping up to be the most expensive non-presidential race in history, with Republican spending mounting. Outspending the Democratic Party That's an increase of $24 million, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.
The race between Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey (D) and Republican Dave McCormick is a clear second in terms of spending. General election spending on aired ads It was almost evenly matched. As of Saturday, Republicans had more than $20 million worth of future ad bookings, AdImpact reported.
“Outside groups are really, really important, and they're really bigger players in this Senate race than they are in the campaign. It's not surprising, because they're more flexible and have more opportunities. “The campaign can raise money in many different ways,'' Minchillo said.
But at the same time, fundraising numbers are showing which races are not seen as a priority for donors, especially as polls show some Senate races are moving away from Republican candidates. is made clear.
In Arizona, Republicans had spent just $17 million on air advertising as of Saturday, compared to $49 million for Democrats. Polls show that even though Vice President Harris and former President Trump are in a close race in the state, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) has a much better lead over Republican Kari Lake. If not, they still have a lead of nearly 10 points.
“If you don't have money, you can't get your message across. It's that simple,” said Arizona Republican strategist Barrett Marson. “And Ruben Gallego has tens of millions of dollars and dominated Kali Lake’s campaign from the beginning.”
The gap is similarly stark in Nevada, where Democrats spend about $20 million more on air advertising and reservations than Republicans, according to AdImpact. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) leads Republican Sam Brown by about 9 points in the Decision Desk/The Hill polling average.
Democratic strategist Daniel Fee said the party's fundraising advantage, or at least its competitiveness in fundraising battles, bodes well for the party to retain the Senate.
“Certainly there are ideological donors who just give to Democrats and Republicans, but some centrist and non-ideological PACs give nothing to the people they think they’re going to get. There isn't,” Mr. Fee said angrily.
