Republicans are smelling blood in next year's New Jersey gubernatorial race after an unexpectedly close presidential election.
Vice President Harris lost the Garden State to President-elect Trump by just about 6 percentage points, but it was the closest Republicans have come to winning the state's electoral votes in the past 30 years. This followed a tighter-than-expected gubernatorial election three years ago, when Gov. Phil Murphy (D) won by just over 3 points.
Murphy is term-limited, so Republicans are hoping they have a big chance to flip the governor's mansion in 2025.
“This is a great opportunity for the New Jersey Republican Party to take advantage of President Trump's strong performance in the state,” said Alex Zudan, New Jersey Republican strategist. “We have a very competitive field, but in a competitive field we get great results.”
New Jersey has always been considered a solidly Democratic state in modern politics, last voting for a Republican presidential candidate in 1988, and last voting for a Republican senator in the 1970s. But the state also has the somewhat unorthodox quality of electing a Republican as governor, and the state's Republican Party saw its biggest improvement within the party in November.
“New Jersey was one of the worst states on the Democratic side in terms of top-of-the-ticket performance differentials from 2020 to 2024,” said Henry de Koninck, a Democratic strategist. He said the change was “significant.”
Part of the decline in Democratic votes statewide is due to turnout in northern counties near New York City. Hudson, Essex and Passaic counties have traditionally been Democratic strongholds, where party chairmen have turned out hundreds of thousands of voters. The power of these county institutions has declined over the past two election cycles.
“The reason for that is because the state party's Democratic leadership has long been largely complacent and hasn't focused on building infrastructure, and because the state party has considered New Jersey reliably blue, many “It's something that has alienated people,” said Jersey City Mayor Stephen Fulop, one of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates.
State Democratic Party Chairman LeRoy Jones, who is also the Essex County Democratic Party chairman, said the party's message this term is not “direct” and lacks “connection with voters,” but county parties are not on the rise. He dismissed concerns that this might be the case. on this occasion during the 2025 gubernatorial cycle.
“There needs to be a conversation and a strategy to improve and develop, hire all the counties, get us all on the same page and then go. That's how we'll get there.” said Jones.
Jones added that he believes Democrats need to “recalibrate” their message during the election cycle to focus on the economy and cost of living, with affordability being top of mind for voters in 2024. He said the trend will continue until 2025.
Within the Republican Party, there is an ongoing battle between more establishment Republican moderates and Trump's “America First” supporters.
Jack Ciatarelli, Murphy's 2021 Republican candidate, is running on the establishment side, while conservative talk radio host Bill Spadea is running on the establishment side, while many pro-Trump Republicans are running. I am running to support him.
On the Democratic side, there are six major candidates: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (DN.J.) and Rep. Josh Gottheimer (DN.J.). Sean Spiller, president of the New Jersey State Teachers Union; former state Senate President Steve Sweeney; Newark Mayor Ras Baraka. And the flop.
This is the first gubernatorial election without a “line,” New Jersey's unique voting design in which county parties place their favored candidates in a line on the ballot, rather than the office block voting found in most other states. be.
A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction earlier this year, calling the system unconstitutional. Since then, most county employees an agreement has been reached It proposes abolishing the county line system in favor of office block voting while the state Legislature considers reforms to ballot design.
Dan Cassino, a pollster at Farleigh Dickinson University, said the changes make it difficult to parse out which of the six Democratic candidates is most likely to win the nomination.
“As we get closer to the primary, there will be a lot of out-of-state polling, but we don't know how accurate it will be because we don't know what the likely voter model will be,” Cassino said. Said.
Zudan said the potential elimination of county boundaries in 2025 could also have an uncertain impact on who emerges from the Republican primary. In addition to Ciatarelli and Spadea, other candidates include state Sen. John Bramnick, a former state House minority leader. Former state senator Edward Darr. and former Burlington Mayor Jim Fazone.
Zudan said Ciatarelli has power in counties like Monmouth, which is a major source of Republican support, while Spadea holds establishment positions, including county chair, in Ocean County, which has more Republicans than anywhere else. He said he has received support. Spadea almost immediately announced his 2025 gubernatorial run after Ciattarelli conceded in 2021, giving him an organizational and fundraising advantage, but Spadea has lost control of his radio platform. I pointed out that I have it.
“They're both clearly the frontrunners in the race,” he said.
Janet Hoffman, a Republican strategist based in Monmouth County, said the state party is also making inroads into voter registration, with more Republicans registering than Democrats this year, a big deal for a solidly blue state. It has become a turning point.
“That trend is significant, and Republicans are making the best bet after Gov. Murphy's two terms and a Democratic Congress made everything more expensive,” Hoffman said.
Democrats acknowledged the recent results as a “wake-up call” for the party and said they needed to take steps to halt Republican advances.
De Koninck said he sees the 2021 gubernatorial election as a “harbinger” of softening support for Democrats in the state's traditional base. He expects Democratic primary voters will be realistic about who they nominate, keeping in mind who has the best advantage in the Republican-held gubernatorial race. He said there was.
“Democrats need to win back voters by appealing to hard-working, everyday Americans and appealing to the needs and concerns of the middle and working classes,” de Koninck said, adding that “table issues” such as cost pointed out. of food.
Several Democratic candidates have particularly emphasized cutting costs, including housing and health care costs, early in their campaigns.
One trend over the past few decades that may bode well for Democrats in the state is what appears to be a reactionary effect on the party in the White House competing for governor. With the exception of 2021, since 1989 a party that lost the White House won the following year's New Jersey gubernatorial election.
But Mr. de Koninck is likely to be a strong candidate for whoever the Republican nominee is, with recent history showing that there are no candidates on either side who are clearly stronger than their competitors. He said no.
“The campaign is going to do the job they deserve,” he said. “This election is by no means an easy victory, and I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that New Jersey is now a battleground state.”
