Republican strategists in South Carolina are expressing concern following a recent poll from a GOP-aligned firm that presents an unfavorable outlook for the political future of the late Senator Lindsey Graham’s sister, Darline Graham.
The Trafalgar Group conducted the survey between September 23 and 25, revealing that Darline Graham holds only a slight edge over her Democratic rival, Annie Andrews, in what appears to be a closely contested race. Darline was selected by South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster to take her brother’s place after his unexpected passing in July, and her campaign was later backed by former President Donald Trump in the Senate primary last August.
Interestingly, about 8 percent of voters remain undecided, while around 6 percent indicated they might choose someone other than Graham or Andrews.
The poll included over 1,000 likely voters for the upcoming general election, nearly 60 percent of whom identified as Republicans, with a margin of error of approximately 2.9 percentage points.
Earlier polling in September had shown Graham with a two-point lead over Andrews, while another poll from August, conducted for Andrews’ campaign, indicated a tie between the two candidates.
A report from FITSNews on Monday highlighted worries among Republican strategists and conservative activists in the state over the potential for a surprising loss or a very narrow victory for Graham.
A national Republican strategist remarked that the current landscape, featuring a widely unpopular Republican president alongside a motivated Democratic base driven by disdain for him, rising inflation, and prolonged issues like the ongoing situation with Iran, could lead to challenging conditions for Republicans come Election Day. “It’s a perfect storm for a rough day for the GOP in six weeks,” the strategist commented.
This divide within the party seems to be exacerbating existing tensions, something that, in the past, the party has managed to smooth over. However, this time, the strategist noted, that approach may be losing its effectiveness.
Opinions on the political situation varied among strategists, with some expressing a deeply pessimistic view, while others held on to a glimmer of hope, acknowledging past difficulties but asserting resilience. Others took a more pragmatic stance, recognizing that upcoming elections might bring the party closer to a significant showdown.
There’s also a grassroots movement gaining traction among some conservative voters pushing for write-in votes for a different candidate rather than supporting Graham. This reflects a broader discontent with the party establishment among conservative activists. “She was forced upon us,” former South Carolina treasurer Thomas Ravenel remarked, criticizing Graham’s bureaucratic background and her promotion of diversity, equity, and inclusion policies at the state level.
FITSNews observed that the roots of the GOP’s internal rift might trace back to the party’s attempts to endorse Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in the June gubernatorial primary. Though Evette lost to state Attorney General Alan Wilson, many voters still felt frustrated with the party’s insistence on her nomination.
“The SCGOP establishment has kept trying to push Pamela Evette on us, and then did the same with Darline Graham,” a conservative political operative pointed out. “Now they just expect us to fall in line again, which isn’t how it works anymore.”
According to the Trafalgar Group, the self-identification of voters is in line with previous election cycles, with Republicans at around 60% and Democrats at about 29%. “We aim for a representative sample based on various demographics and geographics,” they explained regarding their data collection methods. “In South Carolina, there’s no party registration, so how respondents identify aligns with how they see their political affiliation.”
