According to a Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted for the Montana Republican Party, Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.), the Montana Senate candidate endorsed by President Trump, is leading by 7 points over Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).
In opinion polls, Published On Sunday, 51% of 500 voters surveyed supported Sheehy. Of those, 43% said they would “definitely” vote for Sheehy, 7% said they would “probably” vote for Sheehy, and 1% said they would support Sheehy. Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor at Inside Elections, noted in an X post that the poll, sponsored by the Montana Republican Party, shows “a pretty tough showing for Jon Tester.”
A new poll by the Montana Republican Party paints a pretty bleak picture for Jon Tester.
Tester (D-inc) 44
Sheehy (right) 51August 18-20, 500LV, +/- 4.4%, Public Opinion Strategy https://t.co/Smra5qLOrN pic.twitter.com/yr9oHnOp8k
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) August 25, 2024
Tester has a 7-point lead with 44 percent approval, including 40 percent who say they “definitely” support Tester, 3 percent who say they probably support him and 1 percent who say they are leaning to support him.
The Liberal Party’s Syd Dowd received two per cent of respondents, while the Green Party’s Michael Downey received one per cent.
Sheehy is it was fun 7 point fluctuation In just two months. In a June POS/Montana Republican poll, Tester and Sheehy were neck and neck, with 46% approval ratings each. Since then, Sheehy has gained five points.Meanwhile, Tester lost 2 percentage points.
Looking more closely, Sheehy’s rise in approval ratings as the election nears its final stages comes as some of Montanans’ biggest issues – illegal immigration, inflation and the cost of living – emerge.
Voters were asked to choose the two most pressing issues in this election: 39% of respondents chose illegal immigration as their first or second most important issue, while 34% said inflation and the cost of living were their most important issue.
The third most common answer was “jobs and the economy” at 31 percent, followed by “abortion” at 28 percent.
The trend in heavily Republican Montana represents a major problem for Tester and Democrats’ overall effort to maintain their one-seat Senate majority.
Republicans are already poised to win the seat of West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV). hill and the Headquarters Decision Desk give There’s a 99% chance Gov. Jim Justice (R-West Virginia) will do so. Manchin was famously a Democrat before becoming an independent in May.
In theory, if all Republican incumbents hold onto their seats, the GOP would have 50 seats, which seems likely given that Democrats’ best chance of flipping would be to defeat Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL) in the Republican-held states of Texas and Florida. Additionally, if Sheehy wins in Montana, the GOP would need just one seat to hold a majority. Republicans also have a shot at picking up seats in several other states, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
The poll was conducted Aug. 18-20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.
RELATED — Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy talks about how to beat Jon Tester in Montana
M. Pardee, J. Knudsen / Breitbart News
