Government Shutdown Negotiations Heat Up

To prevent a government shutdown, there’s a lot happening in Congress. Democrats plan to unveil their own version of a temporary spending bill, but timing is uncertain—possibly as late as Friday.

The House is expected to vote on the GOP’s “clean” continuing resolution (CR), which would maintain current funding levels until November 21st. However, for this to happen, the bill must first pass in the House, which won’t be easy since Democrats seem poised to vote against it. The Republicans can only afford to lose two votes on their side and would need support from Democrats to get this through. Let’s assume the House does manage to approve it by Friday, though.

If that happens, the bill will then head to the Senate.

There’s a planned vote in the House regarding funding bills that would extend spending until November. To finalize this bill, Senate Democrats will need to go through two rounds of “solidification” to overcome the filibuster, a process that could stretch into the weekend.

Senate Republicans, meanwhile, have a funeral to attend on Sunday, adding a layer of urgency to the proceedings. There’s a lot of finger-pointing about who’s responsible if the interim spending bill fails.

Here’s what might unfold in the Senate: they’ll receive the House’s temporary spending bill on Friday afternoon. Both sides might bypass some procedural rules in an attempt to hold two “show” votes that same day.

The Republicans will push to defeat the filibuster, requiring a 60-vote majority—hard to achieve when there are 53 Republicans in the Senate. It’s rumored that Senator Rand Paul may be seen as a key procedural vote, which raises the stakes for party alignment. That creates a scenario where eight Democrats would need to join Republicans for the vote to succeed, a highly unlikely outcome.

After that, discussions will open up about the Democrats’ draft plans, but they, too, will need a 60-vote threshold. With only 47 senators in the Democratic camp, this presents another hurdle.

As one Senate Democrat pointed out, “It’s good to have log jams early in this process; it shows that nothing can pass through yet.” This deadlock just gives both sides a chance to take political jabs while ensuring their viewpoints are on record.

Such a situation could complicate weekend sessions in the Senate. As it stands, the House and Senate are likely to wrap up their sessions before Rosh Hashanah, which begins at sunset on Monday. However, if needed, both chambers could come back into session after the holiday, with a Band-Aid bill already passed to avoid a shutdown until September 30th at midnight.