Frank Bisignano, Secretary of the Social Security Administration, discusses initiatives aimed at reducing waste, fraud, and abuse in a segment titled “The Bottom Line.”
Due to the ongoing government shutdown, the announcement of the Social Security Annual Inflation Adjustment has been postponed. However, officials involved in enhancing benefits are expected to publish the data next week.
Social Security benefits are adjusted annually for cost of living, or COLA, which takes into account the inflation from the previous year. This adjustment is based on the annual rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks the CPI each month to gauge how inflation affects consumer prices. Unfortunately, the data for September, which was set for release on October 15, has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
The BLS has indicated it will be bringing back some furloughed employees to ensure that CPI reporting can continue, paving the way for the announcement of COLA adjustments. The September CPI data is now expected to be made available on Friday, October 24, alongside the Social Security Administration’s announcement of the 2026 COLA.
Social Security beneficiaries are expected to see a larger cost-of-living adjustment in 2026
Experts forecast a COLA increase for 2026 that may exceed the 2.5% implemented in 2025. The Federation for the Elderly recently estimated that the COLA could be around 2.7%, leading to an average monthly benefit increase for retired workers from $2,009 to $2,062.
This estimation is actually higher than what was anticipated earlier this year when predictions were made for a 2.1% COLA. The increase is primarily attributed to “much higher inflation” than initially projected.
Tax changes may hasten the Social Security program’s failure compared to earlier estimates.
The same group noted that the 2.7% COLA falls in line with historical averages, as the benefit adjustments over the last two decades have averaged 2.6%. Notably, 2023 saw the highest adjustment of 8.7%, while there were two years—2010 and 2011—with no adjustments at all.
The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has also published its own forecasts for the 2026 COLA inflation adjustment, slightly estimating it at 2.8%.
