During the regular season, a raucous crowd gathered at Comerica Park as the Tigers earned a wild card berth.
Well, the Tigers are finally back home after defeating the Astros in Houston in the wild card round and winning the ALDS split in Cleveland through the first two games. As a result, Wednesday afternoon's third game (3:08 p.m., TBS) is sure to have an enthusiastic atmosphere.
Cleveland's Alex Cobb will be playing in the playoffs for the first time in 4,021 days. Cobb has not played in a game since September 1 because of a blister on his pitcher's hand.
Manager Steven Vogt probably doesn't expect his starting pitcher to play too deep in this game, and oddsmakers have the veteran right-hander betting on just 11.5 outs.
Guardians vs. Tigers odds
| team | money line | run line | over/under |
|---|---|---|---|
| guardian | -108 | -1.5 (+150) | o7 (-112) |
| tigers | -112 | +1.5 (-190) | u7 (-108) |
Guardians vs. Tigers predictions
This season, Cobb posted a 2.76 ERA in a small sample of 16 1/3 innings. He has a K-BB% of just 11.2%, but continues to generate a lot of ground balls (61.2%), which is consistent with his past two seasons in San Francisco.
He will be supported by the Guardians' bullpen, which finished the regular season with an MLB-low ERA of 2.57. Last month, Cleveland's relievers pitched to an xFIP of 3.50 and struck out 9.79 batters per nine innings.
The Tigers may start Jackson Jobe, who is a blue-chip pitching prospect, in this contest. Another possibility is to start as an “opener” like Trevor Holton, who had a terrible showing in Game 1.
Either way, you can expect the Tigers to take advantage of the chaotic bullpen deployment that served them so well throughout September.
Jobe, the No. 4 overall prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline, has exceptional arm talent (125 Staff+ rating) and features four elite pitches. This season, he pitched 91 2/3 innings in the minor leagues, posting an ERA of 2.36.
Since being called up on September 25, he has pitched just 4 1/3 innings, including a big-spot game against Houston in which he allowed a critical two earned runs in just 1/3 of an inning.
I would argue that the Tigers should stick with him in the playoffs and bet on his turnaround. That's because the Tigers don't have enough other pitching depth and had some tough downtime against the Astros.
Since August 1st, the Tigers have a wRC+ of 99 and a wRC+ of 105, which ranks 11th against right-handed pitchers. Over the same span, Cleveland achieved a wRC+ of 96.
While their offensive process revolves around keeping the ball in play and strong bat discipline, the Guardians' 30th-ranked hard hitting percentage over that period is concerning.
Guardians vs. Tigers picks
The Tigers made it to the playoffs with a 21-9 loss, but it continues to feel like something really special is happening for them.
The Guardians have good high-leverage weapons, but other than that, I don't think they have the pitching edge in this matchup.
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The Tigers' offense has been better in a fairly large sample, and they will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd in this matchup. In the virtual pick game, this is enough to give you an edge.
Best bet: Tigers money line (-106, FanDuel)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB, and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in his articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but he's also up 180 units himself on the sports betting app's verified picks. Nick can be found at X @nickm_hockey.
