Vice President Harris is gaining voter support for the economy, just as the economy itself is showing new signs of strength.
According to various polls, the economy is the top issue for voters. In a survey earlier this month, pollster Ipsos described the issue as “the most important issue for Americans after April 2024.”
Trump has long had a lead on economic issues, first over President Biden and then over Harris.
But that lead is now shrinking.
Among U.S. adults polled by Marist to find out which candidates are better at handling the economy, Ms. Harris trails Mr. Trump by 3 percentage points. The same poll conducted in June showed Biden trailing Trump by 9 percentage points.
Additionally, a Fox News poll showed Harris trailing Trump by 5 percentage points on the economy, while a March poll showed Biden trailing Trump by 15 percentage points.
It's not entirely clear why the gap is narrowing, but one likely reason is the shift in Democratic candidates from Biden to Harris.
Both Biden and Harris will be tied to the administration's performance on the economy, but Harris has proven to be a stronger messenger than Biden on many issues, and she has been able to influence Democrats in a different way than the current president. It has excited members and independents alike.
Mr. Biden had a difficult time in the debate with Mr. Trump in July, resulting in Mr. Biden losing the race, but in the debate with former President Biden earlier this year, Mr. Harris defeated Mr. Trump. It was widely seen.
There are also real economic factors that could benefit Harris.
Inflation has fallen sharply since its peak in June 2022, and the stock market has hit a series of record highs in recent weeks and days.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates this month, signaling success in its fight against inflation. The move promises to lower borrowing costs for businesses and households, which is not only helping the market but could also improve the outlook for consumers and workers.
Pollster Nate Silver said Friday that positive ratings on economic indicators helped lift them. “It also helps Harris,” Silver wrote. Harris is currently considered a slight favorite in the presidential election.
Trump and Harris' messages may also be a factor.
After the presidential debate earlier this month, veteran pollster Frank Luntz observed that former President Trump's message on the economy has lost touch and is losing sight of the issue of affordability that is central to American households. .
“Every time they asked him a question about inflation, he moved it to another issue. Every time they gave him a chance to statistically and factually distinguish himself from the vice president, he attacked humanity. “He was unable to continue the message,'' he told C-SPAN's Washington Journal.
“The result was a 2-1 advantage for Harris in almost every poll,” Lantz said.
Despite Harris' momentum, Trump still leans on the issue, focusing on fossil fuels and auto production.
“We lost 50 percent of our business in 25 years. A lot of it went to Mexico, a lot of it went to China, a lot of it went to all over the world, including Japan,” Trump told journalist Sharyl. In an interview with Attkisson, he talked about the topic of car production. “We'll take it back. We'll reach a level in car building that no one thought was possible.”
After a pandemic-induced economic shutdown and two years of rising inflation that hurts wallets and pocketbooks, prices and the economy have become top concerns for American families and households, and the economy will decide the 2024 election. This is likely to become a point of contention.
It's hard to say whether families and households, especially those in swing states, are better off than they were four years ago.
However, major economic indicators are clearly strong due to the heavy impact of state intervention in the economy, and the overall situation is now in the “soft landing” that the Federal Reserve hopes to see, similar to the post-pandemic period. It's approaching.
White House National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard issued a statement praising the Biden administration's cumulative economic growth following the impressive 3% growth in the second quarter that the Commerce Department confirmed Thursday.
“We learned this morning that the economy grew 3.2% annually under the Biden-Harris administration, which is even more growth than previously estimated and better than the first three years of the previous administration. ” she said.
Brainard acknowledged that the administration “has more work to do to reduce costs for families.”
The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index fell to an annualized growth rate of 2.2%, the lowest level in years, marking the virtual end of post-pandemic inflation.
While employment conditions for workers are tight, the absolute unemployment rate remains low, dropping to 4.2% in August, with 142,000 jobs added to the economy. Median household income has increased for the first time since 2019 as people are working more now than they did immediately after the pandemic.
Median household income adjusted for inflation will be $80,610 in 2023, up 4% from the 2022 estimate of $77,540, according to the Census Bureau.
“Inflation has come down considerably. [and] We were able to do that without going into a recession, which has never happened before, not just in the United States but almost anywhere else in the world. And now the unemployment rate is gradually increasing to a level of 4.2. [percent] That's what a lot of people were thinking about beforehand, which is basically stable, full employment. That’s where we want to stop,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsby said in an interview last week.
“If you can lock it exactly in place, you'll want to do that,” he stressed.
Such a freeze-frame scenario is impossible because overproduction is forced in the business cycle, and Goldsby acknowledged that there are some danger signs in the economy right now.
The Fed is currently cutting interest rates, with its last rate-setting committee cutting interest rates by 0.5%. The rate cuts coincided with broader economic contractions in 2020, 2008, and 2001, but the current stimulus cycle has seen this coincidence continue as trillions of dollars in economic stimulus launched by governments during the pandemic. It may be hindered.
