Vice President Harris was widely seen by voters as the clear winner in the debate against former President Trump, but that view made no difference in key battleground states where the presidential candidates remain closely contested heading into November.
Ms Harris's performance in the debate has been praised in the nearly two weeks since it took place, and several polls, including one conducted on the night of the debate, have shown that voters view her as more calm under pressure, more intelligent and of greater moral integrity than Mr Trump.
But about 20 polls conducted since the showdown have shown Harris' slim lead over Trump nationally and in battleground states to have expanded by less than a percentage point, and in some states Trump's lead has widened, albeit by small margins.
According to a Hill/Decision Desk poll, Harris currently holds a 3.6 percentage point lead over Trump nationally, up slightly from a 3.2 percentage point lead the day before the debate.
Polls in battleground states have shown similar patterns. Harris' leads over Trump have grown slightly in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin in the weeks since the debate, but her lead in Michigan, which is part of the blue wall, remains steady. Trump holds 0.1-point leads over Harris in Arizona and Georgia, the other two key states needed for a candidate to declare victory.
“It's true that battleground states remain close, but in a country as divided as we are right now, that's always going to happen, and debate performance didn't materially change the numbers in those states,” said John LaBombard, a former spokesman for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (Independent, R-Ariz.).
Overall polling shows Harris leading by 1.2 percentage points in Michigan, the same lead she held the day before the debate, and she has a 1.1 percentage point lead in Pennsylvania, up only slightly from her 0.7 percentage point lead before the debate.
Harris also holds a 1.2 percentage point lead in Nevada, up from a half-point lead before the debate. Her largest lead is in Wisconsin, where she holds a 2 percentage point lead, down from a 3 percentage point lead she held on September 9.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, polls show Trump leading Harris by 0.1 percentage points, down from a 0.1 percentage point lead Harris held before the debate, and in Georgia, Trump is leading by 0.1 percentage points, down from a 0.3 percentage point lead he held before the debate.
Strategists say it's unlikely either candidate will have much of a lead in key battleground states where the margins are slim.
“Anyone who was expecting the polls to show a big lead either way is going to be sorely disappointed,” said Clayton Cox, former national finance director for the Democratic National Committee, referring to so-called “rigid voters.”
“What matters right now is local activism, enthusiasm and the ability to inspire volunteers, and in that respect I'd choose Harris over Trump any day,” Clayton said.
Democrats have been cautious about declaring victory since the debate, viewing Harris as an underdog in the race, as Ms Harris herself often does on the campaign trail.
“We're still in a race with a margin of error. It's a tie,” Harris campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon said at a fundraiser with Oprah Winfrey on Thursday. “We have to convince people who don't know enough about the vice president and her vision for the future, and have the hard conversations, big and small, and then we'll inch our way across the finish line.”
Republicans also see the race as close.
Stewart Verdery, who worked in the administration of former President George W. Bush, doesn't expect any major turning points before November.
“Whenever Trump has a bad debate or some weird new poll comes out, it's treated as a game changer, but the simple truth is that the parties are within a few points of each other nationally, so the decisive moment in the race never comes,” he said. “But within that narrow margin, Harris has improved her odds considerably since the debate, and now it looks like she's trying to run out the clock on basketball's 'four corners.'”
In this regard, individual opinion polls also paint a mixed picture of the electoral situation.
A Thursday poll from Emerson College and The Hill found that Trump was ahead of Harris by just one point in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and by three points in Georgia. Harris beat Trump by two points in Michigan and one point in North Carolina, and the two candidates were tied in Nevada.
A Marist College poll released Thursday had Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania. It also showed Harris leading Trump by five points in Michigan and one point in Wisconsin. A Quinnipiac University poll taken Wednesday showed Harris leading Trump by six points in Pennsylvania, five points in Michigan and one point in Wisconsin.
But Democrats are optimistic that the groundwork Harris has done in battleground states will pay off by Election Day, despite the lack of movement in post-debate polls.
“It's still a close election, but we're in a better position than they are — we have more money, more volunteers, more enthusiasm. We're in a better position today and I'm optimistic that we're much better positioned to win a close election,” said Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg. “There's no good news for Trump in the battleground states.”
