With less than 60 days until the 2024 presidential election and on the eve of the first debate between Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump, polls suggest this could be the closest presidential election in modern history.
As of Labor Day, the averages of national polls compiled in both countries were:Five Thirty Eight(Harris +3) andReal Clear Politics(Harris +2) shows the race is effectively tied, a significant improvement for Democrats from a few weeks ago when Biden was the nominee.
Harris's approval rating surgedTelegraphand Bloomberg's Michael Sasso and Mark Nichetto.PredictThe VP and the Democrats will win, but while I don't deny that Harris has a national lead and that the Democratic Party is significantly stronger than when Biden was in the lead, I don't agree with the Telegraph, Sasso and Nichetto.
Far from suggesting that Harris has “certainly” won the race, the national figures actually suggest that Trump may be in a much stronger position than the top line suggests.
It's important to note that national polls don't provide a clear picture of Republicans' Electoral College advantage, so Harris's small national lead is by no means insurmountable and suggests a race that's as close as Politico expects it to be.projectThe decision will be made in a “smaller number of states than usual.”
Swing state polls, which are much more detailed than national polls, also show a very close race. According to The Washington Post,NotesHarris is leading in the blue wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), while Trump is leading in three others (Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina) and the two are tied in Nevada.
There's one crucial factor that suggests Trump may be in a better position than he appears.
In fact, not only does Trump tend to do well in national polls, but as Stephen Shepard points out, NotesAccording to Politico, the states where Harris is leading are also ones where polls have “undervalued Trump in the past two elections.”
8 years ago, the last episode of RealClearPolitics averageTrump trailed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 3 points, roughly the same lead Harris currently enjoys, but he won the Electoral College vote.
And in 2020, Biden's actual margin of victory in the popular vote was 4 percentage points, nearly half what Reuters/Ipsos predicted.ProjectedJust days before the vote (Biden +7 points), and as we now know, the race was much closer, down to roughly 100,000 votes in just a handful of states.
There is good reason to believe the former president could do it again.
TIPP Insights September TrackingvoteIn the head-to-head contest, Harris holds a three-point lead (48 percent to 45 percent), but the polling suggests Trump may be in a stronger position than the top-line numbers suggest.
Compared to 2020, the poll found that Trump has significantly improved his support among minority voters, with double-digit gains among Black voters (12 percent vs. 23 percent) and Hispanic voters (23 percent vs. 33 percent).
Similarly, TIPP asked registered voters “which candidate do you think your neighbors will vote for” in an attempt to explain the “silent Trump vote” that helped the former president outperform the polls.
The index gives Trump a four-point lead (43 percent to 39 percent), highlighting the very real possibility that a silent vote for Trump could affect the election outcome.
Indeed, with the race expected to be close, tomorrow's debate will be crucial as both sides will want to gain momentum heading into the final sprint of the campaign.
Trump must avoid simply insulting Harris and instead draw a connection between her and the Biden administration by highlighting the administration's record on issues such as the economy, immigration and crime.
Meanwhile, voters will want to see if Harris can chart a new course independent of Biden. To do that, she must be specific about the policies she plans to promote. To her credit, she has done more recently, though more is needed.
Additionally, Harris will have to counter Trump's attacks forcefully and make a compelling case for her administration that will inspire young voters and sway working-class white voters to her side.
Going into the key debates, key Democratic voting blocs are significantly more enthusiastic about Harris than Biden, according to the Economist/YouGov poll, with the most notable gains coming from Democratic-leaning independents (+16 points), registered Democrats and ideological liberals (+15 each), black voters (+14), Hispanic voters (+12), and voters under 30 (+8).in frontBiden stepped down.Anotherrecently.
This is not a new development but rather a confirmation of a trend I have previously noted in this publication. The fact that polls conducted over the course of several weeks have shown Harris gaining support among these core voters suggests that this momentum is likely to continue.
Of course, the biggest unknown in this race is independents.
The vice president currently holds substantial leads among independents in six of seven states, including leads of six points or more in Georgia (54 percent to 38 percent), Wisconsin (52 percent to 43 percent), Pennsylvania (48 percent to 40 percent) and Arizona (51 percent to 45 percent), according to the Hill/Emerson Poll. vote.
Ultimately, the polling data is clear: Harris' current lead is notable, but it will be a very close race leading up to Election Day, and as Trump has demonstrated time and again, he is far from out of the race and may even be stronger than many expect.
Douglas E. Shawn is a political consultant and founder and partner of Shawn Cooperman Research. His latest book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China Rise, America Falls Back.”
