A new Quinnipiac University poll finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by at least 5 points in Pennsylvania and Michigan, but her lead is narrowing in Wisconsin.
In Pennsylvania, Harris won 51% of voters to Trump's 45%, according to the poll, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each won 1%.
In Michigan, Harris won with 50 percent support in a Quinnipiac University poll, compared with 45 percent for Trump and 2 percent for Stein.
In Wisconsin, Harris received 48% of the support, compared to 47% for Trump and 1% for Stein.
The results differ from The Hill/Decision Desk polling composite, which showed Pennsylvania and Michigan closer than Wisconsin. In an average of those polls, Harris was leading Trump by less than a percentage point in Pennsylvania and Michigan as of Wednesday, but by 2.9 percentage points in Wisconsin.
Neither candidate could likely win the White House while losing all three states. Trump won all three in 2016, and President Biden won them in 2020. These states are sometimes called the “Blue Wall” because of their importance to Democratic presidential candidates. Trump is the only Republican since former President George H.W. Bush to win any of the three states.
The poll also found that more voters view Harris more favorably than Trump, and Quinnipiac said that factor, along with the issue of Republican attacks, could explain Harris' lead.
“Republicans' most reliable strategy of attacking Democrats on immigration and the economy may be losing steam, as voters see little difference between Harris and Trump on who would do a better job of addressing these key issues,” said Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac University.
“Favourability ratings, which capture voters' overall views of the candidates on everything from policies to personality to promises, have shifted towards Harris since we last surveyed Pennsylvanians, and while the changes after the debate were small, they suggest voters are beginning to view her more favorably,” Malloy later added.
People surveyed said the economy is a key issue for voters: In Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50% said Trump could handle the economy better, while 48% said Harris could get the job done.
From September 12-16, the Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed 1,331 Pennsylvania voters (margin of error +/- 2.7 percentage points), 905 Michigan voters (margin of error +/- 3.3 percentage points) and 1,075 Wisconsin voters (margin of error +/- 3.0 percentage points).
