Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascension to the top of the Democratic field could help the party regain more stable control in at least one traditionally Democratic state and improve its national prospects.
A Siena College Research Institute poll released Tuesday found Harris leading former President Trump 53-39 among New York state voters.
While a 14-point margin would normally be considered close in a state where Democratic presidential candidates have won by as many as 30 points in recent election cycles, it represents an improvement over President Biden’s prospects, which were seen in previous Siena College polls as having margins of just 8 to 10 points.
Kamala Harris holds rally in Pennsylvania after winning Democratic nomination to introduce herself as running mate
Vice President Kamala Harris (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
“Things have changed since our last Siena College poll, and the switch in the top Democratic candidate has had a noticeable, though less dramatic, impact on the race. Harris now has the support of 86% of Democrats, up from 75% for Biden in June. And independents favor Trump over Harris 47% to 40%, but prefer Trump over Biden 45% to 28%,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a press release about the poll. “Harris leads among black voters 81% to 11%, up from 59% to 29% for Biden in June.”
Harris has an advantage over both Biden and Trump in the overwhelmingly Democratic state, where she has a 53% approval rating and 43% of respondents have an unfavorable view of the vice president. Trump has only received favorable ratings ranging from 37% to 39% in the polls, while Biden’s approval rating in June was sluggish, ranging from 42% to 53%.
“Of the presidential candidates likely to appear on the New York ballot, Harris is the only one with a high favorability rating,” Greenberg said, “and if there is a six-way race, her lead would drop slightly from 14 points to 12 points. Currently, 11% of voters and 19% of independents say they would vote for the minor party candidate.”
Former President Trump (Shawn Rayford/Getty Images)
It’s official: Vice President Kamala Harris officially wins the Democratic presidential nomination
The poll in the heavily Democratic state, which has not been won by a Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1984, comes as Harris has been closing in on Trump in national polls since replacing Biden in the top spot.
Harris currently holds a slight lead over Trump nationally, according to a Tuesday polling average from Real Clear Politics, a dramatic shift from the day before Biden dropped out of the race, when Trump held a 3-point lead over the incumbent president.
Betting markets have also tightened significantly since Biden decided to drop out of the race, with the Real Clear Politics betting average giving Trump a 52% chance of winning the election and Harris 46.3%.
President Biden speaks at a campaign event in Philadelphia on April 18, 2024. (Hannah Beyer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
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The numbers compare favorably with betting odds from the week before Biden decided to drop out, when Trump had a 66.2% chance of winning, Biden an 18% chance and Harris a 7.3% chance.
The Siena College Research Institute poll was conducted July 28-August 1 among 1,199 New York state voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.
