Vice President Harris enters Labor Day weekend leading in national polls against former President Trump in the race for the White House, but the election outcome still appears uncertain.
Harris leads Trump by about 4 points nationally in The Hill/Decision Desk QQ averages, and she is at least tied with or ahead of Trump in seven battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election.
She has been leading the averages in the three “Blue Wall” states for several weeks now, and is currently leading by about one point in Pennsylvania, two points in Michigan, and four points in Wisconsin. She also recently took first-time average leads in Nevada and Georgia, but by less than one point in each case.
The numbers paint a picture of a tight race as the election cycle gears up for a surge ahead of Labor Day on Monday, a weekend that marks the end of summer and the start of fall with just nine weeks until Election Day.
This came after Harris gave her first interview since becoming the Democratic nominee, along with her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. In an interview with CNN's Dana Bash on Thursday, Harris defended some of the policy changes she's made since the 2020 presidential election and said there were no major gaffes.
While the momentum appears to be leaning towards Harris, analysts see it as a close race with neither candidate having a clear advantage.
Pollster Nate Silver revealed Thursday, Trump After last week's Democratic National Convention, the model gave Harris a slight edge in her chances of winning the electoral vote, 52.4 percent compared with her 47.3 percent, Silver said, and one key reason for that is that the model assumes that Harris will see an uptick in support after the national convention, as candidates often do.
“The good news for Harris is that if she just maintains her current numbers for another two weeks, our models will become more confident that she has emerged from the convention backlash and her performance will begin to rise again in our projections,” Silver wrote.
Another concern for Harris could be Pennsylvania, he said, where she has been tied or slightly behind Trump in the last few polls and could fall further behind once the convention excitement wears off.
Most national polls show Harris leading by at least a few points, often within the margin of error, and the Trump campaign has argued she is in a “honeymoon” period, receiving favorable press that is inflating her approval ratings.
campaign In the notes Harris may see another surge in support after the Democratic National Convention, but argue it will be small and temporary, and Trump campaign pollsters have pointed to past elections in which candidates held leads, sometimes large margins, after conventions only to ultimately lose in November.
Polls show some signs that Harris could see at least a slight boost in support after the convention.
Harris' DDHQ average approval rating has started to plateau after rising above 49% in mid-August, but Trump's approval rating has since fallen from about 46.5% to 45.5%, and Harris' lead is still growing.
Both candidates' polling ratings have remained roughly steady, with Ms. Harris holding a somewhat modest lead over Mr. Trump at about 3.5 points, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, but her lead has grown slightly from just under 3 points before the convention began on Aug. 19.
Silver's lead has grown from 2.3 points before the tournament to 3.8 points now.
Even if the boost is temporary, it would be welcome for Democrats, because before Biden dropped out of the race, many thought he had little chance of beating Trump. Biden was trailing by 3 percentage points nationally the day he announced his withdrawal.
But the leads Harris has shown in various polls since the convention don't put a comfortable end to her campaign, but rather suggest a tough race to end it.
A Wall Street Journal poll conducted after the convention gave Harris a one-point lead nationally in head-to-head races and a two-point lead when other third-party candidates were included, both within the margin of error.
A post-convention Quinnipiac University poll showed Harris leading equally in both situations, while a USA Today/Suffolk University poll showed her holding a 5-point lead in head-to-head contests.
Many battleground states are beginning to lean toward her, but the race is expected to be close: The vice president leads by two points among registered voters and one point among likely voters in seven key battleground states, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.
The Hill/Emerson College Poll showed Harris leading in Georgia, Michigan and Nevada, Trump with slight leads in Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin, and the two candidates tied in Pennsylvania, all within the margin of error.
One bright spot for Harris is that she is now firmly ahead in the Sun Belt states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina after slipping slightly behind Biden. Fox News polling has Harris holding slight leads in the top three states and slightly behind in North Carolina.
Polls had suggested Biden's path to victory was narrowing in the final weeks of the campaign, with his best chance being to win three “blue wall” states. Even if Harris' support temporarily rises, her support is strong enough to be re-elected in all seven battleground states.
It's certainly unclear how the polls will play out in the coming weeks, at least with the scheduled presidential debates and the potential for further surprises in this unprecedented election, but both Harris and Trump have multiple paths to securing the 270 electoral votes to win the presidency, and their campaigns so far suggest they know it.
