Pundits across the country are now asking the same question: Who will win Thursday night’s debate?
The right answer is not always the most satisfying one.
It’s not a “Joe Biden” or a “Donald Trump,” but someone who can avoid looking like the “disruption candidate” of this election cycle and portray his opponent as such.
For years, American voters have stubbornly rejected candidates who carried extra baggage and drama.
For evidence of this political truth, one only needs to look back to Tuesday night, when Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) spent his entire term pulling fire alarms and carrying water for Hamas, and lost his job as a result.
Consider also the 2022 midterm elections. Republicans from the Adams family ran to represent them in key elections across the country, but they lost every single time.
In 2016, Trump’s bravado seemed refreshing to many, especially compared with the unattractive Hillary Clinton.
But President Trump and the antics of the left have left Americans exhausted and yearning for peace more than anything else.
In 2020, aided by the pandemic and Trump’s personal lack of discipline, Biden was able to argue persuasively that his election would mark a return to normalcy.
Now he will have to make the same argument under more difficult circumstances.
What works in his favour is his opponent.
President Trump’s tantrum after the last election culminated in the storming of the Capitol, a national embarrassment that remains one of the most enduring images of our tumultuous political times.
The events of January 6, Trump’s criminal indictment over them and his keeping of the documents after he left office remain electoral liabilities for the Republican front-runner.
And some of Trump’s most striking recent rhetoric, including his promises of “revenge” against his enemies and his calls to “repeal” the Constitution, will provide useful ammunition for Biden.
That any of this is likely to actually come to fruition doesn’t matter: Trump’s ramblings (sometimes fairly, sometimes unfairly) feed into a constant news cycle that gives the average voter a hard drink to drink.
Whether Biden will be successful in stigating his opponent as a disruptive candidate will depend on his ability to evoke the sense of relief the public felt when Trump left office in January 2021.
Trump’s arguments are likely to be more substantive.
Biden may be a moderate by temperament, but his policy choices have caused mayhem during his time in office.
The ongoing immigration crisis has been engineered by the president and the open border advocates in his administration.
Post-pandemic inflation has been exacerbated by the United Democratic Party government’s extravagant spending.
America’s enemies, Russia and the Middle East, started a war during his term.
And his response, inexplicably, was to sabotage his allies’ response.
Trump will have plenty of material to work with on Thursday night, and Biden made sure of that.
But just as important as what candidates say is how they say it.
In 2020, Trump caused extensive damage to his campaign when he tried to dominate the stage by interrupting his opponent, moderator Chris Wallace, and shouting at him during their first showdown.
He’s never going to be a linear pro-prosecution debater, but a little restraint and message discipline would go a long way.
If Trump looks relatively chastened on screen, his rants about the “Society of Truth” are no less damaging.
For President Biden, the challenge is different.
People are understandably concerned that he is no longer fit for the presidency.
After all, the man can’t remember when he served as vice president.
Biden is the granddad whose family is considering taking away his car keys, but the car he drives belongs to the executive branch and his family will have to sit in the back seat for at least the next six months.
A clear and forceful response on Thursday would go a long way to mitigating this serious image problem.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump have taken Americans on a rollercoaster ride for the past eight years, but their challenge in their first debate is to convince Americans that they are best placed to calm the tide.
I wish you both the best of luck.
