Experts told the Post that New Hampshire's independent voters could dash former President Donald Trump's hopes of securing the Republican presidential nomination for a third time on Tuesday.
The state's 344,335 independent voters, far more than Republicans or Democrats, pose a significant risk to his chances of a decisive victory, Republican analyst Ryan Gardusky said in a post. told the paper.
“In New Hampshire, independents can vote in either party's primary,” Gardusky said. “Many of them are left-of-center voters, so that's what he fears. If enough of them show up, they might carry the state for Haley.”
He added, “Maybe he won't lose in New Hampshire on Tuesday, but the large influx of independents could bring him closer to a tie.'' And, as the de facto Republican incumbent, he argues that the primary is already over. This is not a great trend for anyone.”
Gardusky said President Trump's claims that troublemakers among New Hampshire's 261,254 registered Democrats would “infiltrate” the Republican primary are unfounded, adding that by law they are not allowed to participate in the race. He said he couldn't do it.
During October, This was announced by New Hampshire officials. It said 3,950 voters who were previously registered as Democrats either switched to Republican status or switched to “unfiled” status in time to vote in the Republican primary. That's 1.5% of the state's Democrats.
President Trump is trying to boost turnout among his supporters in New Hampshire, alleging that left-wing partisans are plotting to influence Republican votes.
“Nikki Haley is counting on Democrats and liberals to infiltrate the Republican primary,” President Trump told voters in Atkinson, New Hampshire, on Tuesday, where polls show she's second in the Granite State. He strongly criticized the former United Nations ambassador who is running for office.
President Trump claimed this week that “a group of people are coming in who are not Republicans.” “And we're artificially increasing her numbers here even though we still have a big lead over her.”
On Friday, New Hampshire Secretary of State David M. Scanlan said: predicted record high turnout The total number of voters in the Republican primary was estimated at 322,000 based on the number of absentee ballot applications his office received.
This Republican turnout estimate is much higher than the state's tally of 267,768 registered Republicans, suggesting a significant number of undeclared voters will choose to participate in Republican elections.
The Democratic New Hampshire primary is largely uncontroversial given DNC rules that put South Carolina first in the primary calendar, potentially giving thousands of left-wing voters a chance to oppose Trump. be.
There will be a sharp turnaround from 2016.
In the last Republican primary in New Hampshire, Trump won 36% of independent voters in a large district with 11 candidates. According to exit polls.
“For Trump, it's all about the story,” Gardusky said.
Republican primary polls in the Granite State, which take into account voters beyond independents, show Trump widening his lead with Haley after this week's win in Iowa. ing.
As of Saturday, he held a 16-point lead over second-place Haley. According to RealClearPolitics Poll average.
meanwhile, Saturday daily tracking Haley, a Suffolk University graduate, received 53% of the vote, leading the former president by 17 points, with Haley receiving 36% of the vote and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis far behind with 7%. .
The survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters (both registered Republicans and independents planning to vote Republican) had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
