Republican candidate Bruce Blakeman is now in a stronger position against Governor Kathy Hochul compared to past Republican candidate Lee Zeldin, according to a recent poll that highlights a tight race as the election draws near.
A Siena College poll from early August indicates Hochul leads Blakeman by a slim margin of 10 points—49% to 39%—among likely voters.
This is a better standing for Blakeman than Zeldin had at this point four years ago.
In August 2022, Hochul had just completed her first year as governor, commanding a 14-point lead over Zeldin, then a member of Congress, with figures at 53% for Hochul and 39% for Zeldin.
Hochul ultimately defeated Zeldin by a six-point margin, with totals of 53% to 47%.
“With under three months to go until the election, Hochul has a 10-point lead over Blakeman, sitting at 49-39%, which is just shy of that crucial 50% mark,” shared Siena pollster Steven Greenberg.
“It’s already shaping up to be a competitive race,” he noted.
Election Day is set for November 3rd.
Interestingly, Hochul’s lead in other races seems to be narrower than in the gubernatorial matchup.
Democratic Attorney General Letitia James leads her Republican rival, Saritha Komatireddy, by 18 points (54% to 36%) among likely voters.
Furthermore, Democratic State Treasurer Tom DiNapoli has a 23-point lead over Republican Joseph Hernandez (55% to 32%).
Polling data from Siena highlights that Hochul’s support appears stronger among women and Black voters.
Among female voters, Hochul leads Blakeman by a significant 19 points (56% to 37%), while male voters seem more evenly split.
However, Blakeman is far behind Hochul within the Black voter demographic, trailing by a staggering 60 points.
In New York City, a stronghold for Democrats where Zoran Mamdani recently won the mayoralty, Hochul holds a commanding 45-point lead (64% to 19%).
In suburban areas, Blakeman maintains an edge, leading his opponent by eight points (49% to 41%), and they basically split votes upstate.
Blakeman also finds a solid base among Catholic voters and gathers 42% support from Jewish voters, a demographic that often leans Democratic. Notably, Blakeman is Jewish himself.
Despite these promising signs for the Republican challenger, polls indicate he still has significant ground to cover on critical issues.
For instance, 51% of likely voters believe Hochul would perform better in increasing affordable housing compared to 35% for Blakeman.
Additionally, voters think Hochul might be slightly more effective at making life affordable for New Yorkers (48% to 41%).
On public safety, opinions are split; 47% favor Hochul while 44% lean toward Blakeman.
Other polls from Republican-leaning organizations suggest the race could be even tighter, with one indicating Blakeman trailing by just four points (47% to 43%).
Another separate survey from conservative groups early last month also showed Hochul ahead by only six points (47% to 41%).
This investigation was carried out by the Coalition for the Protection of Taxpayers, supporting Blakeman’s campaign.
The Siena College poll surveyed 811 likely voters from August 3rd to 6th, with a margin of error of ±4.2 percentage points.
