Trump’s Latest Middle East Trip: Observations and Outcomes
Eight years ago, President Donald Trump traveled to Saudi Arabia, and it seemed he returned with little to show for it.
True, he took the inaugural flight from Riyadh to Tel Aviv, prayed at the Western Wall—marking the first time a sitting president did that—and acknowledged Israel’s sovereignty over some of the most sacred sites in Judaism.
However, there weren’t any significant peace deals announced at that time, nor did he indicate plans to move the US embassy to Jerusalem.
Yet, just seven months later, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and initiated the embassy relocation, a move that eventually catalyzed peace efforts between Israel and several Arab nations.
The takeaway? Perhaps it’s best not to rush Trump’s dealings, particularly in contexts where complexities abound, and the Arab world prefers a self-directed approach.
Fast forward to this week, and Trump’s recent trip to the Middle East seemed somewhat fruitless initially.
Saudi Arabia chose not to engage in the Abraham Accords as some had anticipated. Meanwhile, the Houthis, backed by Iran, persisted in their missile launches toward Israel. Trump met the Syrian president, a former jihadist, and lifted sanctions, raising concerns among Christians and Druzes about potential persecution. Additionally, reports suggested the impending deal with Iran looks quite different from the failed agreement under Obama.
Observers noted that Trump’s positions seemed unusually weak, at least compared to his usual approach.
Notably, the week started with the unconditional release of American and Israeli hostage Edan Alexander, described by Hamas as a gesture of goodwill. Soon after, it emerged that Israel might be contemplating a lengthy ceasefire in Gaza as part of the discussion.
Moreover, a major commitment was made by Saudi Arabia and Qatar to invest a trillion dollars in the US, although some questioned whether the $400 million “gift” tied to the president’s jet came with conditions attached.
Initially, it appeared the Trump administration might be overly eager to tout its diplomatic achievements to the American public.
Surprisingly, later into the week—though perhaps inaccurately—US Special Ambassador Steve Witkov reportedly distanced himself from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, indicating a shift in US-Israel dynamics.
Whether there’s truth to that or not, it’s clear that US interests might not always align with those of Israel, as Israel is willing to take risks for security, even if it leads to instability.
This difference in perspective illustrates Trump’s focus on prioritizing America, suggesting his alliance with Israel is rooted more in shared interests than in wishful thinking.
Likewise, Israel is demonstrating its capacity to operate independently. Although the US facilitated a ceasefire, it didn’t compel Israel to halt Houthi assaults. The recent Israeli airstrikes targeting Hamas leadership during Trump’s visit underscored Israel’s operational autonomy.
However, some Israelis expressed unease about Trump’s strategy as his trip unfolded.
Yet, the atmosphere changed dramatically when Witkov visited Tel Aviv’s Hostage Square, praising Netanyahu for facilitating Alexander’s release, even as demonstrations against the Prime Minister typically occur there.
Trump’s speech to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) included pointed criticisms of Palestinian leaders in Gaza while asserting that any deal with Iran hinges on eliminating fear in the region.
This last point rang particularly significant, considering Netanyahu’s warnings to Congress in 2015 about Obama’s proposed nuclear deal with Iran’s potential to fail.
These crucial elements were somewhat vague until they were explicitly articulated during Trump’s address on Wednesday.
The meeting with Syrian leader Ahmed Alshara, followed by a handshake, drew some criticism, but the warm reception Trump received from Saudi investors suggested a recognition of his diplomatic overtures. He encouraged investment in Syria, even amidst Israel’s military actions against it.
For Syria, military threats to its neighbors seem unlikely; economic growth spurred by Gulf investment appears to be the best path forward.
Trump also urged Syrian leaders to join the Abraham Accords and pursue peace with Israel, hinting at potential openness from Syria to this approach.
Supporters in Israel worried that Trump’s focus on Arab nations could sideline Jewish interests.
Nevertheless, it seemed essential for Trump to prioritize engagements in the Arab sphere first, which can be a tough narrative to present.
There’s a lesson here: the full impact of Trump’s first visit to Saudi Arabia in 2017 took time to manifest.
So, perhaps it’s prudent to wait and see; good outcomes might still be on the horizon.
