Tax return season for Americans kicks off on Monday, allowing them to file their 2025 returns. Policymakers are forecasting that tax refunds will be about $1,000 higher than previous years.
Americans need to file their 2025 tax returns from January 26 to April 15 or can ask for an extension until October. Supporters of last year’s tax reform, called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), predict a significant increase in tax refunds this year.
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-Missouri) mentioned that U.S. taxpayers are expected to see an extra $91 billion in refunds. This season could mark a record with total refunds estimated at $370 billion.
“Families can expect an average refund increase of $1,000 compared to last year,” Smith said. “For instance, a family with two children making $73,000 would have zero tax liability. This larger refund means more funds for essentials like groceries, medical bills, and school supplies that are harder to manage under President Joe Biden’s administration.”
What to Know About the Tax Filing Season
Smith also highlighted benefits from OBBBA that would create new temporary tax reductions applicable to eligible incomes in 2025.
“Our goal as Republicans is to enhance affordability for working families as quickly as possible, which is why we applied the working family tax cuts retroactively to incomes from 2025,” he explained.
Officials from the Trump administration are echoing similar expectations regarding the size of refunds Americans can expect this tax filing season.
IRS Guidance on Tax Exemptions and Deductions
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted last month that the tax refund total could reach between $100 billion to $150 billion, with households seeing refunds of $1,000 to $2,000 each.
Bessent pointed out that last summer’s tax cuts didn’t allow Americans the traditional time to adjust their withholdings, resulting in what he described as “very large refunds.”
President Donald Trump mentioned in December that this season is anticipated to be the largest tax refund period in history.
A significant tax refund could bolster household finances, especially as families are coping with the rising costs of daily essentials like food and healthcare.
IRS Updates on Retirement Contribution Limits for 2026
According to IRS statistics, the average refund for the 2025 tax season rose to $3,167, reflecting a 0.9% increase from the prior year.
Last tax season, over 103.8 million refunds were distributed, which is a 1% decline compared to the previous year. Total refunds last season were approximately $329 billion, nearly unchanged, down 0.1% from the last year.
Most refunds, over 94.3 million, were delivered via direct deposit, amounting to more than $304 billion returned to taxpayers.
As taxpayers file their 2025 returns, they can utilize the IRS’s “Where’s My Refund?” tool, which offers updates on refund status. This resource is usually available about 24 hours after electronic filing or four weeks after submitting a paper return.
