President-elect Donald Trump secured his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris early Wednesday morning. Exit polls show which demographic is responsible.
Although Harris has historically been a Democrat, she has struggled to attract support from voters, including women, Latino men, and young voters. According to CNN analysis comparing exit polls from the past three election cycles. While Mr. Trump was able to rally support from unlikely groups, Ms. Harris' failure to secure these key groups likely cost her the election.
While various demographics have shifted in Trump's favor, one key issue may have been Trump's biggest advantage over Harris.
Although the Democratic Party has historically secured the female vote, Ms. Harris underperformed compared to her predecessor. According to the latest CNN exit polls, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the female vote by 13 points in 2016, and President Joe Biden won the female vote by 15 points in 2020. Harris, on the other hand, won just 10 points among women.
At the same time, Trump has regained the edge he lost slightly with male voters in 2020. According to CNN, Trump won the male vote by an 11-point margin in 2016, but his margin dropped to just 8 points in 2020. This time, Trump won the male vote by 10 points.
More specifically, Latino men also shifted from Harris to Trump. In 2016, Clinton won with Hispanic men by an astounding 31 points, and in 2020, Biden won by 23 points, according to CNN. Trump completely reversed this trend in 2024, winning Latino men by a 10-point margin.
Minority voters also turned to support Trump across the board. In 2016, Clinton won by a 50-point margin among minority voters with a college degree and by 56 points among minority voters without a college degree, according to CNN. Biden did a little worse in 2020, winning minority voters with a college degree by 43 points and minority voters without a college degree by 46 points. Harris continued this downward trend, winning among college-educated minorities by a 35-point margin, but among non-college-educated minorities by just 32 points.
Trump also gained support among young voters. According to CNN, in 2016, Clinton won by 19 points among voters aged 18 to 29, but in 2020, Biden won by 24 points among voters in the same age group. This time, Trump narrowed the Democratic lead among young voters, and Harris won by just 13 points.
While various demographics have shifted in Trump's favor, one key issue may have been Trump's biggest advantage over Harris.
According to CNN, roughly two-thirds of voters say the economy is in bad shape in 2024, and nearly half of voters say the economy is worse now than it was four years ago. These sentiments inevitably gave Trump an advantage over Harris, who has been in power with Biden for the past four years.
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