Home prices and housing affordability are becoming clearer ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Hot issues in battleground states That will decide the election.
While the housing crisis is a problem across the country, analysis shows that Realtor.com® Affordability Score Data shows clear trends separating red states, blue states, and seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
on average, Red states are more affordable than the US Overall, blue states are not very affordable.
The average for battleground states falls in the middle, being slightly more affordable than the national average.
These relative trends have held despite an overall decline in affordability.
Nationwide, housing affordability Sales have fallen sharply in every state since 2021, as rising mortgage rates and persistently high prices have put ownership out of reach for many prospective homebuyers.
But a breakdown of affordability differences across the electoral map and in seven key battleground states reveals how voters will respond to candidates’ pitches on this important issue.
Democratic President Joe Biden addressed the housing crisis in his State of the Union address this spring, proposing tax credits and construction incentives for some buyers and sellers.
His Republican opponent, Donald Trump, took the opposite stance, accusing Biden of waging an “attack on the suburban lifestyle” that is driving down home values.
Our affordability data shows that in some ways the two candidates are speaking to voters in two different worlds.
But what matters most in November is how they are received by voters in the voting states that will decide the election.
“In general, states that vote Republican are better off than the rest of the country, and states that vote Democratic are less well off,” said Hannah Jones, senior economic data analyst at Realtor.com. “Battleground states tend to be more expensive than the U.S. average, but on average less affordable than Republican states. Even though affordability worsened in every state and U.S. from 2021 to today. This dynamic remained in place.”
2024 Likely Voting Home Price Score
State-level affordability scores from Realtor.com are considered an average of each state’s voting preference for the 2024 president, along with the U.S. national score.
A higher score indicates a more affordable housing market.
How we measured the likelihood of buying a home regardless of political affiliation
Realtor.com’s affordability score is an index that ranges from 0 to 2 and reflects the share of residential properties in the market that are affordable to people at different income levels in different areas.
Generally, a score of 1 or higher indicates an affordable market, where families earning the local median income can afford to purchase at least half of the homes for sale under current mortgage rates.
The national average affordability score in March was 0.65. Iowa had the highest state score at 0.93, but no state scored above 1. housing affordability It’s a challenge all across the country.
Still, some states are more affordable (or perhaps not so affordable) than others.Use of cook political report As a guide, we determined red states and blue states based on states rated as “certain” or “likely” to vote for the Republican or Democratic presidential candidate in 2024.
The average for the 24 red states is housing affordability The score in March was 0.70, while the average for 19 Democratic-leaning states and Washington, D.C., was 0.59.
The remaining seven battleground states have an average home affordability score of 0.66, which is in the middle of the political spectrum and just above the national average.
Despite affordability worsening in every state and the U.S. as a whole since 2021, the relative power dynamics separating red states, blue states, and battleground states have remained the same since at least 2016.
“Housing affordability rose gradually across the United States from 2018 to 2021, but fell from 2022 to 2023 as rising home prices and mortgage interest rate increases accelerated faster than wage growth.” ” Jones said.
“Every state in the country experienced this deterioration in affordability. Mortgage rates and home prices have remained at about the same level over the last year, which is a significant deterioration in affordability nationwide.” “It doesn’t mean it’s a big improvement, but it doesn’t mean it’s a big improvement either,” she added.
It’s important to note that Realtor.com’s affordability index only reflects home prices, not rents.
Ability to pay rent is also a national issue, with nearly half of renters nationwide spending more than 30% of their income on rent, and a quarter spending more than 50% each month on rent. According to US Census data.
But it is unclear whether the issue will be resolved along similar political lines.
What’s behind the difference?
Census data shows that states that vote Republican tend to be more rural, on average.
Declining average population density may be one factor mitigating the housing crisis in these states.
