As Tropical Storm Francine heads toward the United States, many drivers may be worried about what the storm will mean for their gas tanks and their wallets.
At least when it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes, gas prices and gas supplies have a lot to do with whether the storm affects oil refineries.
Nearly half of the U.S. refining capacity is located on the Gulf Coast, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, so tropical storms and hurricanes moving in that direction are a concern.
Despite Francine's targeting of the Gulf Coast, the storm is likely to have a minimal impact on gasoline prices and supplies.
“Given the fact that the storm will be relatively weak, we don't expect it to have a significant impact on refineries along the Louisiana coast,” said Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
He noted that gasoline prices are currently at their lowest levels since 2021, so it would take a significant deviation from the storm's strength forecast to have any impact on gasoline prices.
By contrast, Hurricane Harvey, a Category 4 hurricane at landfall, caused refineries to shut down for more than a week in 2017, de Haan said.
Because Francine is expected to be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, de Haan noted that precipitation is low and the risk of flooding to refineries is low.
“Obviously, it's not going to go away, but it's certainly a wide range of possibilities,” he said. “When it comes to refineries and storms, our main considerations are flooding and wind damage, and thankfully we may be limited in terms of both of those.”
De Haan also urged drivers not to rush to fill up their tanks before Francine hits, saying the storm had minimal impact on gas supplies and that gas prices have been falling over the past six weeks and are likely to continue to fall.
“Motorists who are filling up with gas unnecessarily today could be spending more money than necessary to fill up their tanks,” he said.
