Vice President Kamala Harris' crushing defeat at the hands of former President Donald Trump is a repudiation not only of the Democratic Party and its ideals, but also of the mainstream media and the narrative they have created for Harris.
why is that? Quite simply, both Ms. Harris and the Democratic Party fundamentally misunderstand the mood of voters. The mainstream media bought into the fantasy that Harris and the Democratic Party were operating under, despite substantial evidence to the contrary.
Specifically, by delegating the campaign to Harris' “new progress” and “joy politics” without any primary process or serious discussion of the issues, Democrats have learned two important facts about their voters: I began to believe that I could somehow avoid it. The first was President Biden's approval rating (36%). CNN) rivaled that of former President Jimmy Carter on the eve of his crushing defeat to Ronald Reagan in 1980 (37 percent per year). gallup poll).
Second, the percentage of voters who believed the country was heading in the “right direction” was about the same in the 1980 and 2024 elections, not favoring Democrats. Less than a fifth (17%) of Americans felt that way before the election Ipsos polland similar 20 percent said According to the Roper Center, this was also the case before the 1980 election.
Taken together, the fact that the American people wanted a new direction, new policies, and new leadership doomed the Democratic Party in 1980, just as it doomed Kamala Harris this week.
Harris had historically low approval ratings (36% per year) until she was replaced by Biden. The Economist – YouGov), with no substantive results and certainly a failure as Biden's “border czar,” but Biden, former presidents Bill and Hillary Clinton, and former president Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama supported her. Then Democrats rallied around her.
as one of us wrote Democrats are doomed to fail because they automatically rallied behind Harris after she secured the nomination and avoided an open primary after Biden withdrew.
As a result, we have not only produced candidates who are weaker than necessary, but also candidates who cannot distance themselves from the failed policies of the current administration.
Indeed, this initially seemed like the path of least resistance, especially as Ms. Harris' dollar receipts and poll numbers soared. But without substance, it soon became clear that her “new progress” was hollow and empty.
In the rush to nominate Harris, neither she nor her party spelled out her fundamentally different agenda from Biden's. It also failed to effectively address the most important issues such as the economy, immigration, and the cost of living.
Only at the end, when it became clear that Harris was losing support in the Southwest on immigration, did she change her policy on tightening the southern border. Still, the changes did nothing to address voters' concerns.
What Democrats need now is a thorough reassessment of their ideology, just as they did in the 1980s when the Democratic Leadership Council was founded.
At that time, Bill Clinton's party sought to stop its leftward drift and move toward the center through welfare reform and policies. dedication Toward “innovative, non-bureaucratic, market-based solutions”.
Most importantly, Democrats don't draw completely wrong conclusions from Harris' criticism and continue to embrace the “woke” policies, DEI, and wealth redistribution that some Democrats are calling for. It is important not to move further to the left.
If Democrats reject left-wing policies, they need to understand that running a national movement based on abortion, climate change, and simple opposition to President Trump is a path to failure.
In other words, the Democratic agenda of wokeness, climate change, and abortion has no central relevance to winning elections to the nation's highest offices.
Frankly, if the Democratic Party fails to realign the party to the center or continues to adopt left-wing policies, it could be forced into permanent minority status.
The new agenda must recognize that Americans want smaller government, lower taxes, a balanced budget, and a clearer assertion of American values. Democrats also need to reject woke policies and liberal elites that are deeply out of touch with average voters.
Beyond the Democratic Party, mainstream media also joined in promoting the message that Harris' lack of an agenda does not prevent her from winning the presidential election.
According to Media Research Center“Harris received 78% positive coverage” on the same network, while Trump received 85% negative coverage.
The polls were consistent, despite the mainstream media's attempts to find out exactly. Harris never widened her lead beyond the margin of error, and Trump continued to maintain support across the country and in battleground states despite media attacks, convictions and other legal issues.
After all, elections in which incumbents vote tend to be referendums on the incumbent government. And in fact, polls in this election, like in 2016 and 2020, underestimated the level of support Republicans received.
Again, Republican voters are less likely to take the polls, less likely to admit their intention to vote for Trump, and finally, low-propensity voters are more likely to oppose the incumbent party on Election Day. I found out something.
The media tried to downplay Trump and pre-emptively promote his electoral defeat (if not imprisonment). Trump’s landslide victory — He appears to be aiming for 312 electoral votes. And the public vote victory as of this writing is irrefutable proof that the mainstream media missed this story.
And once again, mainstream media has proven to be inaccurate, biased, and out of touch with the facts on the ground. This further erodes confidence in what they will produce, given that not only will Democrats lose the White House and the Senate, but Democrats will also lose the White House and the Senate. Probably House as well. Once counts are completed in Arizona, Colorado, California and Alaska.
In fact, the best way to sum up the election is that unless there are fundamental changes in the Democratic Party and the media, interest in not just what the Democratic Party has to offer, but what the mainstream media has to offer, is likely to continue to decline. That means there is. is open to the public every day.
Douglas E. Shawn and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners at the New York-based polling firm Shawn Cooperman Research. They are co-authors of the book America: Unite or Die.
