How much is Greenland?
donald trump jr. He recently flew to Greenland on what he called a “personal day trip.” trump force onea few MAGA hats, and lots of photos for social media. Oh, and this trip came shortly after his father, President-elect Donald Trump, declared the purchase of Greenland an “absolute necessity” for the United States.
Now, obviously Denmark said no again, but let's think about this idea for a second. If America were to buy Greenland, how much would it cost? Admittedly, it's a little strange to think about put a price on a huge block of ice It's like a product, but I'm here because my real estate agent is selling a house in Antarctica.
Let's start by pricing Greenland like farmland. Using values for farmland in Newfoundland and Labrador, the average is approximately $6,481 per acre— would be cool $3.47 trillion For the whole island. Yes, trillion, with a “T.” This is about the size of Germany's economy, except instead of BMW factories and bratwurst festivals, it's mostly ice cows and musk oxen.
Of course, much of Greenland is uninhabitable and permanently frozen, so pricing the entire island at farmland rates is, well, pretty generous. A more realistic approach is to look at areas that may become agricultural land in the future. In estimation, 5,351,610,000 acres Climate change may make agriculture possible. Based on these numbers, Greenland's farmland would be worth: $34.7 billion and $104.4 billionIt depends on how ambitious you want to be about the whole “Greenland as the breadbasket of the Arctic” thing.
Valuing Greenland like a high-growth stock
Let's try another method. The idea is to price Greenland like a high-growth tech stock. On the island, GDP is approximately $3 billionbut heavy 600 million dollars Much of this comes from subsidies from Denmark. Without these subsidies, Greenland's independent GDP would be $2.4 billion.
Currently, high-potential assets are regularly traded in financial markets. 50x to 100x return. Applying Multiple of 125xthe kind of thing given to startups with great potential but little actual profit at the moment. $300 billion. Yes, it's a tech-stock multiple, but it's more than just a block of ice. Greenland is a treasure trove of resources. rare earth metals— What you need for electric cars, smartphones, and missile systems. Whoever controls Greenland will control an important part of the 21st century economy.
The remote village of Itkortormit in Greenland. (Rod Long/Unsplash)
If you feel it's too speculative to value Greenland like farmland or high-growth stocks, you can always look to history. America bought alaska From Russia in 1867 $7.2 millionor about $140 million in today's dollars. At the time, critics called it a bad deal, a frozen wasteland with little value. But once oil and gold were found, Alaska started looking pretty smart.
after that, 1946 offerwhen the US reportedly made an offer to Denmark. 100 million dollars For Greenland, approx. Currently $1.4 billion. Denmark obviously said no, but here we are, trying to figure out whether $300 billion sounds like madness or genius.
What's in it for Greenlanders?
Of course, buying Greenland is more than just handing over a check and picking up the keys. In Greenland 56,000 residentsand they may have something to say about being bought. To make this offer more attractive, the US could double Denmark's current subsidies. $1.2 billion annuallyor about $21,429 per resident per year. This isn't exactly monopoly money, but it could help spread the idea that joining the United States could improve infrastructure, health care, and education.
It could also promise Greenlanders a high degree of autonomy. There is no reason to think they would have to abandon their current system of government to become part of the United States. They could become semi-autonomous regions, something like a federation. Puerto Rico or the Northern Mariana Islands. We can promise them even more autonomy than they currently enjoy under Danish rule.
And what will it be for Denmark? Well, they'll be relieved with that $600 million in annual grants and pocket a very generous amount of money $300 billion In cash. For context, Denmark's overall GDP is approximately $400 billionThat's a pretty good payday.
Strategic value: owning the future of the Arctic
Beyond economics, there is a whole geopolitical perspective. Greenland is an important asset in the Arctic, Thule Air BaseOne of the most important outposts of the US military. As climate change opens up new Arctic shipping routes, owning Greenland would give the United States control of new trade corridors and strengthen its dominance in the region.
Trump is clearly gaining strategic value. After Trump Jr.'s visit, he posted on Truth Social: Greenland “needs safety, security, strength and peace!” He even shared a video of Greenlanders pleading with the US to “liberate” the island from Danish colonial rule. Sure, the man in the video reportedly had a minor drug conviction, but well, the message was clear: Trump wants Greenland, and he's going to promote it any way he can.
Look, buying Greenland is probably not going to happen. Denmark responded: “No. Greenland's leaders are focused on increasing autonomy, and even if we slam $300 billion on the table, this deal will be difficult to get done.” . But it's still fun to think about, because Greenland is one of those rare geopolitical assets that might actually have value.
in $300 billionthe United States would secure vast mineral wealth, control key Arctic trade routes, and gain a strategic foothold for generations. compared to We spend $300 billion each year on interest payments on our national debt.it doesn't seem that crazy after all. Real leaders don't just think about today, they also think about tomorrow's benefits.
So, will the US buy Greenland? Probably not. But if someone does, we'll look back and wonder why we didn't offer more.
