Removing President Biden as the Democratic nominee would be extremely complicated, and probably impossible, unless the president voluntarily recuses himself.
Politically and mechanically, it is nearly impossible for Democrats to forcibly block or believe they can prevent Biden from becoming the nominee.
As of now, Biden is the only candidate for whom people attending the Democratic Convention can vote.
He won 99 percent of the party’s delegates in the primary, and Democratic delegates pledge to support the candidate who wins their state’s first-round election.
Democratic National Committee (DNC) rules require any delegates won by Biden to pledge to support his nomination unless he relinquishes them and allocates his delegates to another candidate.
The Democratic National Convention could change its rules to block Biden before the convention begins on August 19, but that would require an unimaginable level of political support. It’s highly unlikely that there will be a fight between Biden supporters and opponents to oust Biden at the convention.
But Democratic sources told The Hill that it’s conceivable that party leaders, including former presidents Barack Obama and Clinton, could try to persuade Biden to discuss withdrawing. Biden ultimately relies most on the advice of first lady Jill Biden and his sister Valerie, who are widely seen as the only voices that could truly change his mind.
The unique circumstances of 2024 could give party leaders even less time than usual to decide who their nominee will be: Ohio law requires ballots to be certified no later than 90 days before the election. This year, that’s Aug. 7, about two weeks before the convention begins.
Ohio lawmakers tried to pass a bill to fix the issue, but it stalled, leading DNC officials to decide to effectively nominate Biden before the deadline and the convention. If the DNC intends to do this, the change of candidate would have to happen before Ohio’s deadline in order for the candidate to appear on the ballot in the state, despite an amendment by the Ohio legislature.
Party leaders on Friday rallied around Biden and privately gave no indication they might pressure him to back down.
The Trump campaign, White House and surrogates have strongly opposed the idea, but some say it could be a real problem if polls show that Trump’s performance is hurting weaker candidates.
Who could take his place?
Vice President Harris would be Biden’s natural successor.
But she would not automatically become Biden’s successor if he were to step down.
Although Biden won the primary, he cannot give Harris the support he gained in that race.
Instead, Harris will likely compete against former President Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, at the convention or sooner, against other candidates who may consider themselves a stronger candidate than the vice president.
According to its constitution, the Democratic National Committee is responsible for the overall conduct of the party during the national convention, including filling vacancies in the presidential and vice presidential nominations.
There will be a vacancy when Biden leaves office.
And Harris would be the natural successor.
Politically, some say it’s hard to believe there’s anyone who could replace Harris if Biden wants to nominate her as his replacement, but it’s almost certain that there could be other candidates who could replace her, such as California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
“This is a bigger challenge in replacing Biden. It’s hard to see how the Democratic coalition can survive intact unless Harris is the front-runner. And if you replace Biden, it’s hard to guarantee that it will be the consensus of the party,” a former DNC official said.
If multiple candidates compete to replace Biden, who declined to run for the Democratic nomination, they would have to compete for state delegates at the party’s convention in Chicago in August.
That would set up a scenario not seen in American politics in decades: a contentious convention to actually choose the party’s nominee.
Conservative groups have questioned the legality of putting Democratic candidates on the ballot under these circumstances and have threatened to file lawsuits across the country.
But Elaine Kamark, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, noted in an interview with The Associated Press that courts have not consistently intervened in primaries unless the party running them is engaging in race-based voter suppression or other acts that violate constitutional rights.
