Only one Week 9 NFL game is left, and it’s a significant one: the 6-1 Buffalo Bills visit the 6-1 Minnesota Vikings in a matchup that could shift the standings in both conferences.
Sunday’s results have already changed the playoff picture. Here’s where things stand before Monday night’s game, and what the result could mean.
AFC playoff picture
The AFC standings currently look like this:
- Buffalo Bills (6-1)
- Denver Broncos (7-2)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)
- Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)
- New England Patriots (5-4)
- Cleveland Browns (5-4)
- Las Vegas Raiders (4-5)
- Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
- Houston Texans (3-5)
- New York Jets (2-7)
- Indianapolis Colts (2-7)
- Miami Dolphins (1-7)
- Tennessee Titans (1-7)
- Los Angeles Chargers (0-8)
As things stand, Buffalo would have home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Even a loss to Minnesota would leave the Bills in first place: their 4-1 record in conference games is better than Denver’s 3-1 mark.
Jacksonville currently holds the third seed over Pittsburgh on the strength of its 5-2 record against AFC teams, compared with the Steelers’ 3-2 record. Pittsburgh sits ahead of Cincinnati in the AFC North because it beat the Bengals. Kansas City is seeded above Cincinnati as well, with a 6-1 conference record to the Bengals’ 4-2.
New England would claim the final playoff spot despite Sunday’s loss to Green Bay. The Patriots and Browns are both 5-4, but New England’s 5-1 record in AFC games gives it the tiebreaker over Cleveland’s 3-3 mark.
If the AFC playoffs started today, the first-round matchups would be:
- No. 7 New England at No. 2 Denver
- No. 6 Cincinnati at No. 3 Jacksonville
- No. 5 Kansas City at No. 4 Pittsburgh
NFC playoff picture
Here are the current NFC standings:
- San Francisco 49ers (7-1)
- Minnesota Vikings (6-1)
- New York Giants (5-2-1)
- Carolina Panthers (3-5)
- Chicago Bears (7-2)
- Detroit Lions (6-2)
- Green Bay Packers (6-3)
- Seattle Seahawks (5-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (5-4)
- Dallas Cowboys (4-5)
- New Orleans Saints (3-5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6)
- Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-6)
- Washington Commanders (2-5-1)
- Philadelphia Eagles (2-7)
The NFC South standings are a little unusual. Carolina would host a playoff game despite being two games below .500. The Panthers lead the division because they have a 1-1 record in division games, while New Orleans is 0-1.
Seattle currently has the tiebreaker over the Rams thanks to a better division record. Tampa Bay fell to 3-6 after losing to Chicago on Sunday night, leaving the Buccaneers level with Atlanta and Arizona. Tampa Bay ranks above Atlanta because of its win over the Falcons, and ahead of Arizona on conference record.
If the NFC playoffs began today, the matchups would be:
- No. 7 Green Bay at No. 2 Minnesota
- No. 6 Detroit at No. 3 New York
- No. 5 Chicago at No. 4 Carolina
What Bills-Vikings could change
Monday night brings together two teams near the top of their conferences. A win would move Buffalo to 7-1, keeping the Bills atop the AFC. A loss would leave them 7-2, tied with Denver, but Buffalo would still hold first place because of its better conference record: 4-1 compared with the Broncos’ 3-1.
If Minnesota wins, the Vikings would improve to 7-1 and move ahead of San Francisco for the NFC’s top seed. Minnesota would hold the tiebreaker based on strength of victory.
A Vikings loss would drop them to 6-2 and, for now, down to sixth in the NFC. Chicago would lead the NFC North at 7-2, while Detroit would hold the tiebreaker over Minnesota after beating the Vikings in Week 8.
