Support for the Democratic opposition to Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro is one of the few international policy issues that has unified Democrats and Republicans in recent years, and the consensus remains strong as the new administration takes power in Washington. It is essential to maintain the While the two parties may disagree on the details of Venezuela's policy, the only way to restore democracy in the country is for the domestic opposition to take control.
But it is unclear whether the Trump administration's approach to Venezuela will prioritize promoting democracy, much less maintain opposition from Venezuela, a key actor in that effort.
on the other hand, choice Two of Florida's most vocal critics of President Maduro are Sen. Marco Rubio (R., Fla.) as Secretary of State and Rep. Mike Walz (R., Fla.) as National Security Adviser. However, there are growing expectations that the economy will return to the so-called highest level. The pressure policies of Donald Trump's first term and the tightening of economic sanctions aimed at triggering the collapse of the Maduro regime.
But Maduro made no concessions related to presidential election fraud, and Trump agreed to a deal in which Venezuela would accept the deportation of illegal immigrants in exchange for allowing U.S. and foreign oil companies to operate in the country. I hope that we can conclude an agreement. In July.
President Maduro's expectations are likely to have increased in response to the Trump administration. schedule Rick Grenell will be appointed special presidential envoy with special duties on issues such as Venezuela.
Just before the 2020 election, then-President Trump sent Grenell, a former ambassador to Germany and director of national intelligence, and Eric Prince, founder of the Blackwater security firm, to negotiate with Maduro's special envoy in Mexico City. . The meeting led Venezuelan leaders to believe that reconciliation with President Trump was possible.
Given this episode and Trump's history of expressing admiration for authoritarians and seeking to overturn his own election defeats, a deal with Maduro may look good for the president-elect. , any deal that fails to explain Edmundo Gonzalez's landslide election victory over Maduro, the opposition standard-bearer, should provoke bipartisan resistance in Congress and generate dissent within the new government.
Policymakers familiar with Venezuela want to curb illegal immigration from the country, reduce the presence of adversaries such as China, Russia and Iran, and end its role as a center for drug trafficking and other transnational crime. The only way to do so is to establish a government that respects human rights and creates a more favorable economic environment.
The exact combination and sequence of pressures and inducements that would have the best chance of success is a subject of legitimate debate, and anyone involved in Venezuelan policy in recent years should approach this issue with humility.
The sanctions-based policies of President Trump's first term left Venezuelans poorer, the opposition weakened, and Maduro further entrenched in power, thereby spurring an increase in immigration. The Biden administration's emphasis on diplomacy and economic inducement enabled the July election to proceed and the opposition to expose Mr. Maduro's injustices, but the policy has so far failed to oust the dictator. had not been reached.
This history highlights the limited ability of the United States to change the authoritarian behavior of the Maduro regime and could give President Trump less emphasis on democracy promotion, but it does not mean that the United States This does not mean that we should abandon it. The U.S. government can help Venezuela advance democracy through a combination of diplomatic efforts and efforts to strengthen domestic opposition.
One of the reasons President Trump's first-term Venezuela policy failed was that he recognized National Assembly speaker and opposition leader Juan Guaido as president in 2019, leaving the government diplomatically isolated and economically weak. Other measures aimed at achieving this goal were not commensurate with sufficient internal political pressure on the government.
Of course, achieving that today is not easy. The Venezuelan opposition, led by Maria Colina Machado, already done More than anyone expected. After Machado, the winner of last year's opposition presidential primary, was constitutionally barred from running, he and the country's democratic leadership teamed up in support of Gonzalez's candidacy.
Despite an unfair and oppressive political environment, Gonzalez won by about 2-1. After fabricating the results and declaring Mr. Maduro the winner, the regime unleashed a wave of repression, imprisoning opposition supporters, forcing Mr. Gonzalez into exile and Mr. Machado into hiding.
Although Venezuelans are currently fearful and reluctant to protest directly, González will be sworn in as the country's legitimate president when President Maduro's current term ends on January 10, 2025. I still hope so. And opposition leaders have not given up on urging the government to negotiate a counterproposal. Democratic transition by providing incentives, including some form of amnesty for certain crimes.
But democracy activists need international support to increase public pressure on the regime from within Venezuela. Foreign governments and international organizations could support the release of political prisoners, allow Machado and other leaders to operate openly, maintain opposition unity, and increase access to reporting by independent journalists. , they can also adopt creative organizational techniques used in successful democratic movements in other countries. authoritarian state.
Such efforts will need to be carried out with special care given Venezuela's new law regulating non-governmental organizations aimed at limiting support to civil society.
Despite these pressures, many brave Venezuelans remain ready to continue joining the fight for democracy and human rights from within Venezuela. The United States could help if it strengthened its role.
Mark Fierstein, a senior advisor at Albright Stonebridge Group, was a special assistant to President Obama and served as senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs at the National Security Council.
